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The Baltimore Orioles (42-22) and Tampa Bay Rays (31-34) conclude their 4-game series Monday. First pitch from Tropicana Field is slated for 6:50 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Orioles lead 5-1
The Orioles are going for a 4-game sweep of the Rays in St. Petersburg Monday. Baltimore won 9-2 Sunday as a -139 favorite with the Over (7.5) cashing. C Adley Rutschman went 3-for-5 with a grand slam and finished with 6 RBIs. RHP Grayson Rodriguez took a perfect game into the 6th inning to earn his 7th win of the season. The Orioles have outscored the Rays 20-5 in the first 3 games of this series.
The Rays only managed 2 runs in Sunday’s loss on 6th-inning RBI singles from 2B Brandon Lowe and LF Randy Arozarena. Starter RHP Zack Littell was respectable holding Baltimore to 3 ERs over his 6 innings but it wasn’t enough.
Orioles at Rays projected starters
RHP Corbin Burnes vs. RHP Ryan Pepiot
Burnes (6-2, 2.26 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.02 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 79 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 10-1 victory at Toronto Blue Jays Tuesday
- Has never faced Rays; made MLB debut in 2018
- 2024 road splits: 3-1, 3.09 ERA (32 IP, 11 ER), 0.97 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 in 5 starts
Pepiot (4-2, 3.96 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 0.96 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 52 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 9-5 victory at Miami Marlins Tuesday
- Has never faced Orioles; made MLB debut in 2022
- 2024 home splits: 1-2, 5.24 ERA (34 1/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 in 7 starts
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Orioles at Rays odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:42 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Orioles -156 (bet $156 to win $100) | Rays +132 (bet $100 to win $132)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles -1.5 (+114) | Rays +1.5 (-137)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Orioles at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Orioles 4, Rays 2
Moneyline.
PASS.
The Orioles (-156) will complete the 4-game sweep of the Rays. However, I’ll AVOID paying the juice and wager on the Orioles’ run line at plus-money.
Run line/Against the spread
BET ORIOLES -1.5 (+114).
Burnes has been everything the Orioles wanted after trading for him this offseason from the Brewers. He has been the lock-down ace at the top of their rotation they were looking for. He hasn’t lost a start since 6 starts ago (May 7), going 3-0 with a 1.41 ERA (32 IP, 5 ER) in his last 5 outing. This will continue in his 1st career start vs. the Rays Monday.
The Rays are 20-28 vs. righties with a .225 team batting average, which ranks 25th in the majors.
As mentioned, Baltimore has dominated Tampa Bay this season, winning 5 of the 6 head-to-head matchups and outscoring the Rays 35-15.
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Over/Under
Lean Under 7.5 (-115), but I don’t see an edge to officially making a strong recommendation. The O/U is 2-1 in the last 3 games and 3-3 in the 6 head-to-head meetings this season.
The Under is 4-1 when umpire Chris Conroy is behind the plate, and he’s expected to be calling balls and strikes at the Trop for this series finale.
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