The Baltimore Orioles (38-81) and Tampa Bay Rays (74-47) wrap up their four-game series Thursday afternoon at Tropicana Field, with the first pitch coming at 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Orioles vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Orioles RHP Jorge Lopez (3-13, 6.14 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.65 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 through 111 1/3 IP.
- The Orioles lost each of Lopez’s last two starts after winning each of his last four outings. In his most recent start, he allowed 7 runs across 3 1/3 innings against the Boston Red Sox.
- He has a 5.87 ERA through three starts this month and allowed at least 4 runs in 10 starts this season.
Rays LHP Shane McClanahan (7-4, 3.73 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 through 89 1/3 IP.
- The Rays won each of McClanahan’s last three starts, as he pitched to a 2.95 ERA over his last 18 1/3 innings.
- In two starts against the Orioles, McClanahan allowed 4 runs and struck out 15 over 12 innings, earning two wins.
Orioles at Rays odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:20 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Orioles +300 (bet $100 to win $300) | Rays -400 (bet $400 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Orioles +2.5 (-105) | Rays -2.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)
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Prediction
Rays 7, Orioles 3
Money line (ML)
As heavily as the Rays are favored against the Orioles, I’m not touching the money line in this game. At -400, there’s very little upside in betting on the Rays to win outright, and I’m nowhere near confident the Orioles will upset Tampa Bay on the road, having lost eight straight to the Rays.
PASS on the money line and instead bet on the spread.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Rays have won eight in a row against the Orioles and covered the spread seven times in that span. Overall, the Orioles have lost 14 games in a row to sink even further below .500 on the year.
Lopez allowed only 2 runs over 6 innings last time he faced the Rays, but Tampa Bay still wound up winning that game 9-6. I like the RAYS -2.5 (-120) to cover the spread and win by at least 3 runs Thursday.
Over/Under (O/U)
The Over/Under is 8.5 runs as the high-powered Rays lineup takes on a struggling starter. The total went Over the projected line in each of the last eight games between these teams and it is 68-50-3 in Rays games this season.
Tampa Bay shouldn’t have much trouble putting up runs against Lopez, as they scored 14 runs in the two games he started against them this season. Bet the OVER 8.5 (-135).
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