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The Baltimore Orioles (55-31) take on the Seattle Mariners (47-41) Thursday in the finale of a 3-game set at T-Mobile Park at 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Orioles lead 3-1
The O’s have opened this series with 2-0 and 4-1 victories the last 2 nights. 1B Ryan O’Hearn went 2-for-3 with his 11th HR and 3 RBIs to lead the charge Wednesday. Baltimore has won 2 in a row and 6 of its last 7 games.
The M’s have dropped 4 in a row and scored just 5 total runs in the process. OF Julio Rodriguez has been dropped to 7th in the order due to a lackluster .244-7-29 line on the season. Seattle is just 27th with 3.8 runs per game and last with a .216 batting average.
Orioles at Mariners projected starters
RHP Corbin Burnes vs. RHP Bryce Miller
Burnes (9-3, 2.28 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 106 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 H, 0 BB, 5 K last Thursday against the Texas Rangers
- May 19 vs. Seattle: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 11 K
Miller (6-7, 3.88 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 97 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K Saturday against Minnesota Twins
- 3 career starts vs. Orioles: 0-1, 4.70 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 7 K in 15 1/3 IP
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Orioles at Mariners odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:31 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Orioles -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Mariners +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles -1.5 (+115) | Mariners +1.5 (-140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Orioles at Mariners picks and predictions
Prediction
Orioles 4, Mariners 2
Moneyline
It’s rare that I personally drop -155 on a ML in baseball because the variance is so large. However, I’m fully on board with this one. Burnes is 5-1 a 2.11 ERA in his last 7 starts, and he owned the Mariners in his May outing. The M’s are a sinking ship that will need to add a couple of bats at the trade deadline.
Take the ORIOLES -155.
Run line/Against the spread
I know Burnes fanned 11 the last time he faced the M’s, but I’m going Under here. His 8.4 K/9 is the lowest since his 38-inning rookie season in 2018. He has struck out 11 twice this season, but he has been Under this number in each of his other 15 starts. Go with that trend and take CORBIN BURNES UNDER 7.5 K’S (-120).
Over/Under
The O’s are 5-5 O/U in their last 10, and the M’s are 4-4-2. The Over is 4-5-1 in the last 10 matchups. The Under has cashed on totals of 7 and 7.5 in the 1st 2 games of the series. The wind is blowing in at 10 mph from left-center. Go easy here, but LEAN UNDER 7 (-110).
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