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The Baltimore Orioles (86-70) and New York Yankees (92-64) meet Tuesday as they swing into a 3-game series in the Bronx. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is slated for 7:05 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Orioles vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Baltimore leads 6-4
The Orioles head up to the Bronx off a 2-4 homestand. Baltimore has tussled with New York atop the AL East standings for much of the season, but the Orioles have ceded ground of late. They are just 4-10 over their last 14 games.
The Yankees are back at home after a 5-1 road trip. New York pitching has led the way of late; since Sept. 11, the Yanks are 9-2 with a 2.18 ERA.
Orioles at Yankees projected starters
RHP Dean Kremer vs. RHP Clarke Schmidt
Kremer (7-10, 4.19 ERA) is making his 24th start. He owns a 1.25 WHIP, with a 3.5 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 through 124 2/3 IP.
- Last outing: Loss, 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 7 K in 5-3 home defeat vs. San Francisco Giants Wednesday
- Career vs. Yankees: 3-3, 4.63 ERA (56 1/3 IP, 29 ER), 1.37 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 in 11 starts
Schmidt (5-4, 2.37 ERA) is tabbed for his 15th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 76 IP.
- Last outing: Loss, 5 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 3-2 setback at Seattle Mariners Thursday
- Career vs. Orioles: 3-3, 3.86 ERA (32 2/3 IP, 14 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 in 10 appearances (5 starts)
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Orioles at Yankees odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 10:20 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Orioles +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Yankees -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-155) | Yankees -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Orioles at Yankees picks and predictions
Prediction
Orioles 5, Yankees 4
Moneyline
Baltimore is 4-1 over its last 5 games at Yankee Stadium.
Recent Oriole run production has been over-colored by poor clutch-hitting numbers. Schmidt returned from the 60-day IL (strained right lat) Sept. 7. He isn’t too stretched out and is coming off 99 pitches in his last start. There is enough risk of a 5-inning start for him that overexposes a weak New York bullpen. And the Yankee right-hander is making this start on 4 days of rest; that has not been a great interval for him in his career.
Kremer has had his issues, but he figures to give Baltimore more length. And he has been solid in 2 of his last 3 starts. The Baltimore bullpen has faltered of late (4.85 ERA in September) but with some sidecar analytics that don’t support the slump.
The value in this one is on the ORIOLES (+135).
Run line/Against the spread
Better leverage can be found on the ML: PASS.
Over/Under
The Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 series meetings at Yankee Stadium.
Expected-ERA figures reveal that Schmidt’s ERA since his return is likely artificially tamped down. The Orioles are the likable side of this game — at least with the decent underdog pricing — but Kremer has scuffled against the Yankees in the past. New York batters own an aggregate .846 OPS against him, per ESPN, and he owns a lackluster 5.23 ERA across his last 31 road innings.
FanDuel Sportsbook has a budget line here: TAKE THE OVER 8.5 (-102).
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