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The Baltimore Orioles (48-25) and New York Yankees (51-25) meet in a Thursday matinee at Yankee Stadium as they close out a 3-game series in the Bronx. First pitch is slated for 4:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Orioles lead 4-2
Baltimore dropped Tuesday’s game 4-2, but rebounded with a 7-6 triumph in 10 innings Wednesday. The O’s are 3-1 over their last 4 games and 9-3 over their last 12.
New York has lost 3 of its last 4. Its offense, mostly dormant in Wednesday’s game until late, has produced a mere .647 OPS over those 4 contests.
Orioles at Yankees projected starters
LHP Cole Irvin vs. RHP Luis Gil
Irvin (6-3, 3.03 ERA) makes his 12th start and 13th appearance. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 in 68 1/3 IP.
- Last outing: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 6-3 loss vs. Atlanta Braves last Thursday
- Career vs. Yankees: 0-2, 8.31 ERA (13 IP, 12 ER), 15 H, 6 BB, 11 K in 3 appearances (2 starts)
- Threw a season-high 100 pitches in his last start
Gil (9-1, 2.03 ERA) is making his 15th start. He has a 0.98 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 80 IP.
- Last outing: Win, 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 6 K in 8-1 win at Boston Red Sox Friday
- Career vs. Orioles: 2-0, 0.00 ERA (12 IP, 0 ER), 6 H, 2 BB, 11 K in 2 starts
- Threw 6 1/3 innings at Baltimore May 1; 2 H, 0 R, 2 H, 1 BB, 5 K
- Owns a 1.14 ERA on a .430 OPS allowed across 9 starts in May-June
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Orioles at Yankees odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:24 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Orioles +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Yankees -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-160) | Yankees -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Orioles at Yankees picks and predictions
Prediction
Orioles 5, Yankees 4
Moneyline
Baltimore is 8-3 over its last 11 games against the Yankees.
New York’s offense is swung around to lesser platoon splits against left-handers (.707 OPS) and the status of OF Aaron Judge (day-to-day with a hand injury) chips away at the Yankees side of this ledger.
Gil has benefited from a .194 batting average on balls in play and, like Irvin, is coming off a season-high pitch count in his last. But Gil is younger and figurers top be monitored for usage creep as the season rolls into its mid-section. Ding the New York side of this mound match-up just a tad.
Though with minimal edge, BALTIMORE (+125) is the leverage side of Thursday’s game.
Run line/Against the spread
No value here. AVOID.
Over/Under
The last 9 Baltimore-New York games at Yankee Stadium have produced 6 Overs. And the Over has gone 13-6 in the Yankees’ last 19 contests.
Both starters have some surface numbers aided by generous rates in the luck factors like BABIP and home run/fly ball rates. Neither bullpen is in particularly good shape in the potential-fatigue department (and Baltimore’s pen has some nice recent numbers that don’t stand up to analytic scrutiny).
The weather for Thursday’s game will be warm, and an outward breeze blowing out to left field is likely. With these 2 clubs ranked 1-2 in scoring, back the OVER 8.5 (-115).
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