The Baltimore Orioles (49-34) and New York Yankees (47-39) clash in a Fourth of July showdown as they continue a 4-game AL East series Tuesday. First pitch at Yankee Stadium is slated for 1:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Yankees lead 4-3
Baltimore led Monday’s opener 3-0, but eventually fell 6-3 as the Orioles lost for the 5th time in their last 6 games. The O’s are 9-23 across their last 32 games at New York.
On Monday, the Yankees hit multiple HRs (3) in a game for just the 2nd time since June 22. New York had 3 doubles as well. The power surge helped the offense overcome a 1-for-7 performance with runners in scoring position.
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Orioles at Yankees projected starters
RHP Kyle Gibson vs. RHP Clarke Schmidt
Gibson (8-5, 4.66 ERA) is making his 18th start. He’s logged a 1.38 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 96 2/3 innings.
- Current Yankees own an aggregate .937 OPS against him, but Gibson worked around 4 BB to pitch 7 scoreless innings (2 hits allowed) against New York May 25
- Has tallied a 2.55 ERA since May 19
- Owns a 5.18 ERA, 1.61 WHIP on the road
Schmidt (3-6, 4.37 ERA) is lined up for his 18th start. He’s posted a 1.42 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 82 1/3 innings.
- Faced Baltimore May 25 and allowed 1R in 5 IP
- Current Baltimore batters own an aggregate .554 OPS against him
- Owns a 2.41 ERA over his last 7 starts
Orioles at Yankees odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:18 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Orioles +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Yankees -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-194) | Yankees -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: +100)
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Orioles at Yankees picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 5, Orioles 4
Moneyline
The Orioles went on a not-fully-supported-by-analytics 34-17 run from April 16-June 13, and there has since been plenty of fade orders for this club. In a nutshell, Baltimore’s run scoring and prevention numbers are kind, and the won-loss record has the Orioles several games too far out over their skis.
The mound duel is interesting. Gibson figures as overrated on the season, but underrated by some bloated figures of late. The opposite holds true for Schmidt. But with the trouble Gibson has had away from Camden Yards and with New York’s recent home-field dominance over the Birds, BACK THE YANKEES (-120).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS. Would want more return here.
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Over/Under
With the pitching particulars and a warm humid day in the Bronx, figure on some scoring in this game. The Over is 4-1 in the last 5 series meetings, and that’s the lean here.
But that lean on an 8.5 is only worth an account login if the price falls to -115 or better. Otherwise, PASS.
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