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The Baltimore Orioles (49-33) and New York Yankees (46-39) meet Monday as they open a 4-game AL East series in the Bronx. First pitch at Yankee Stadium is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 3-3
Baltimore is coming off a 4-5 homestand. The Orioles offense had a couple bright spots in that stretch but still managed just 31 runs overall after scoring just 3 runs in a weekend set against the Minnesota Twins.
The Yankees are back at home after a 3-3 road trip. The trip, which included stops in Oakland and Baltimore, was highlighted by Monday’s likely starter Domingo German registering MLB’s 24th all-time perfect game Wednesday against the Athletics.
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Orioles at Yankees projected starters
RHP Tyler Wells vs. RHP Domingo German
Wells (6-4, 3.21 ERA) makes his 16th start and 17th appearance. He has a 0.88 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 92 2/3 innings.
- Has allowed 2 ER in each of his last 5 starts; last time he allowed more than 2 ER was May 24 start at Yankee Stadium (5 ER)
- Has held current Yankees to an aggregate .584 OPS with 29K against 4 BB
- Current ERA is a would-be career-best for the 3-year veteran
German (5-5, 4.54 ERA) is tabbed for his 16th start. He has logged a 1.05 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 81.1 innings.
- Had allowed 17 R over 5 2/3 IP in his 2 starts prior to Wednesday’s 27-up-27-down performance
- Threw just 99 pitches in his perfecto at Oakland
- Current Baltimore batters own an aggregate .798 OPS against him
Orioles at Yankees odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:41 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Orioles -112 (bet $112 to win $100) | Yankees -104 (bet $104 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles -1.5 (+146) | Yankees +1.5 (-176)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -106 | U: -114)
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Orioles at Yankees picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 5, Orioles 4
Moneyline
There has been some fade to the Orioles since they went on a not-fully-supported-by-analytics 34-17 run from April 16-June 13. In a nutshell, their run scoring and prevention numbers are kind, and the won-loss record created by those runs has been kind. A club scoring 4.77 runs per game and allowing 4.52 is too far out over its skis if its playing even .550 ball. Baltimore enters Monday’s game with a winning percentage of .598.
For this game, mix in a fortunate-on-his-own Wells, who has benefited from a .193 batting average on balls in play. Wells logged a clunker in his last effort at Yankee Stadium (3 HRs and 5 ER allowed on May 24). Despite good numbers against Yankee batters individually, he has a 6.24 ERA in his last 5 starts against New York.
His mound opposite, German, has, last game aside, had all kinds of trouble recently. But the Yankee right-hander has been unduly banged by a high rate of fly balls leaving yards and a low left-on-base rate. Some normalization of those numbers would have his last-5-ERA pretty close to league average rather than the 5.27 that he has posted.
The Orioles are 9-22 in the last 31 meetings in New York.
BACK THE YANKEES (-104).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS. New York getting a run-and-a-half would be worthwhile at -170 or better.
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Over/Under
A warm, humid, breeze-out-to-left favors the hitters, There is some fade lean to the Baltimore starter and the New York bullpen. But these lineups have had enough 2-runs-or-less games of late to leave the 8.5 vulnerable. PASS.
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