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The New York Mets (64-60) welcome the Baltimore Orioles (73-52) to Citi Field Monday to open a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network/ESPN+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Baltimore won 3-0 last year
The Mets, who are 33-32 at home this season, lost to the visiting Miami Marlins 3-2 Sunday to wrap up a 3-game set. They won the series 2-1; however, the Mets are 3-6 over their last 9 and have dropped to 3rd in the NL East. New York still has playoff aspirations and is 61-63 against the spread (ATS) on the season.
The Orioles have been the 2nd-best road team in MLB with a 36-24 away record. They are coming off a 4-2 home win over the Boston Red Sox Sunday to split the 4-game series. Baltimore is tied with the New York Yankees for the best record in the AL East, but has won just 5 of its last 9. It is 68-57 ATS on the season.
Orioles at Mets projected starters
LHP Trevor Rogers vs. LHP David Peterson
Rogers (2-11, 4.89 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.57 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 119 2/3 innings with the Orioles and Miami Marlins.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 9-3 home defeat to Washington Nationals Tuesday
- Is 0-2 with 7.53 ERA (14 1/3 IP, 12 ER) since being acquired from Miami July 30
- 2024 away stats: 2-5, 4.65 ERA (62 IP, 32 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 5.7 K/9 in 12 starts
- Career vs. Mets: 2-3, 3.35 ERA (43 IP, 16 ER), 1.28 WHIP, 11.1 K/9 in 9 starts
Peterson (7-1, 3.04 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.39 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 through 71 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 1/3 IP, 0 ER (1 R), 3 H, 4 BB, 4 K in 9-1 home victory over Oakland A’s Wednesday
- 2024 home stats: 3-1, 3.13 ERA (31 2/3 IP, 11 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 8.0 K/9 in 6 starts
- Career vs. Orioles: 1-1, 3.72 ERA (9 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 1.76 WHIP, 5.6 K/9 in 3 appearances (2 starts)
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Orioles at Mets odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Orioles +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Mets -142 (bet $142 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Orioles +1.5 (-176) | Mets -1.5 (+146)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: +100)
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Orioles at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 5, Orioles 3
Moneyline
BET METS (-142).
The Mets are 10-3 with Peterson on the mound this season and 4-1 in his last 5 home starts. That advantage should bode well for them. New York has also won 3 of its last 5 games and 2 of its last 3, scoring at least 6 runs in 3 of its last 5. The bats have been hot for the Mets.
The Orioles have scored a total of 5 runs over their last 2 games and are just 1-2 over their last 3. With those trends in mind, back METS (-142).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Orioles as run-line underdogs are just too expensive here to play. Similarly, the Mets are too risky as run-line favorites, especially considering 2 of their last 4 games have ended within 1 run.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (+100).
The Mets have gone Under in 2 straight games and are 5-9 O/U in their last 14. New York has allowed a total of 6 runs over its last 3 games, and in Peterson’s last 2 starts, it has allowed a total of 2 runs.
The Orioles are 1-4 O/U in their last 5 games and 3-6 O/U in their last 9. Considering those trends, take UNDER 8.5 (+100).
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