The Baltimore Orioles (20-9) and Kansas City Royals (7-23) meet Wednesday to continue a 3-game set. First pitch from Kauffman Stadium is slated for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Royals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Baltimore leads 1-0
The Orioles took Tuesday’s series opener 13-7 and have won 3 games in a row. Since April 16, Baltimore is 12-2 and over that stretch have compiled a tidy 3.21 ERA.
Over roughly that same stretch, the Royals have struggled mightily. Since April 14, Kansas City is 3-14, including 0-7 at home.
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Orioles at Royals projected starters
RHP Kyle Gibson vs. RHP Zack Greinke
Gibson (4-0, 3.93 ERA) is making his 7th start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 34 1/3 IP.
- Since 2021, owns a 5.04 ERA on the road (vs. 3.63 ERA at home)
- Has held current Kansas City batters to an aggregate .486 OPS
Greinke (0-4, 6.1 ERA) is tabbed for his 7th start. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 in 31 IP.
- Current Baltimore batters own an aggregate .792 OPS against him
- Owns an 8.24 ERA, 1.47 WHIP over his last 4 starts
Orioles at Royals odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Orioles -158 (bet $158 to win $100) | Royals +134 (bet $100 to win $134)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles -1.5 (+104) | Royals +1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -114 | U: -106)
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Orioles at Royals picks and predictions
Prediction
Orioles 5, Royals 4
Moneyline
There is some analytics spread in the pitching here — early-season results vs. expected, based on support numbers — that favors Kansas City. Both in the starting and bullpen departments. Add in some Orioles-too-far-over-their-skis and Royals-underperforming angles, and Kansas City is the value side in this contest. … Just maybe not at this price. Especially in going against the grains of the recent play on both sides, we should want a better price here. PASS, unless the K.C. side gets to +140 or better.
Run line/Against the spread
Gibson having a .100 batting average on balls in play when runners are in scoring position. Greinke pitching around an overall .320 BABIP (.368 with RISP). The Kansas City bullpen working around a .328 BABIP, and the Baltimore ‘pen a .277 figure. Gibson being a road struggler at times and Baltimore owning a 7-2 record in 1-run games.
Along with a solid price on the Run Line, it all plays into a strong ROYALS +1.5 (-115) wager.
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Over/Under
Plenty of reasons to fall on either side of this figure. Or on it. PASS.
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