The Baltimore Orioles (68-61) meet the Cleveland Guardians (68-50) Thursday in the finale of a 3-game set at Progressive Field. First pitch is set for 6:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Orioles vs. Guardians odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Guardians lead 3-2.
The Orioles shut out the Guardians 4-0 Wednesday to even this series at 1. RHP Jordan Lyles pitched around 4 hits and 3 walks over 6 2/3 shutout innings. DH Ramon Urias had 3 RBIs, including a 2-run HR late to put it out of reach. Baltimore is 6-4 in its last 10 and 18-12 in the last 30.
Cleveland could only muster 5 hits Wednesday, and 4 of them came from SS Amed Rosario and 3B Jose Ramirez in the 2-3 holes in the lineup. RHP Triston McKenzie deserved a better fate, allowing just 2 ER in 5 IP with 7 K’s. The Guardians cling to a 1.5-game lead over the Minnesota Twins in the division. They need this game with their ace on the hill.
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Orioles at Guardians projected starters
RHP Kyle Bradish vs. RHP Shane Bieber
Bradish (2-5, 5.63 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.54 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 80 IP.
- Rookie was brilliant in last start against the Houston Astros Friday: 8 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 6 K
- Road warrior: 2-1, 4.79 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 vs. 0-4, 6.29 ERA, 1.74 WHIP and 8.1 K/9
Bieber (8-7, 3.02 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 152 IP.
- June 3 at Baltimore: 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 11 K
- Last 6 starts: 1.56 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 9.6 K/9
Orioles at Guardians odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:36 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Orioles +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Guardians -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-140) | Guardians -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)
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Orioles at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 4, Orioles 2
Money line
Bieber has been one of the best pitchers no one is talking about over the last month. Two of his 3 starts against the Orioles came in 2019, but Bieber is a ridiculous 3-0 with a 0.75 ERA, 0.54 WHIP and 37 K’s in 27 IP in his career against them. The Guardians ride him to a series win Thursday. I’m not so hot on the -190 ML, but there is a SPECIAL SHANE BIEBER TO RECORD 7 K’S AND A WIN BOOSTED to +260. Strikeouts in his 3 starts against Baltimore: 11, 11 and 15. He has 8+ K’s in 4 of 6 GS so it’s worth a shot.
Run line/Against the spread
Eight of Cleveland’s last 9 victories have been by 2 or more runs. Go lightly, because these teams are pretty evenly matched, but LEAN GUARDIANS -1.5 (+115).
Over/Under
The wind is blowing in at 5 mph, which supports the gut feeling I had to go with the Under in the first place. Cleveland’s last 10 games have had 7 runs or fewer. Seven of 10 of Baltimore’s have been Under 8 as well. Money is flying in on the Under because the price went up twice during publication. Go with the UNDER 7.5 (-122).
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