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The Baltimore Orioles (82-62) and Boston Red Sox (72-71) begin a 3-game series Monday. First pitch from Fenway Park is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Orioles lead 7-3
The Orioles lost 2-0 to the Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday, despite a strong performance from RHP Corbin Burnes, who allowed just 2 runs (LF Jonny DeLuca’s 6th-inning HR) in 6 IP. The Orioles’ offense faltered, going 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position and leaving 9 men on base. Baltimore is 2nd in the AL East, a half-game behind the New York Yankees and 9 1/2 games up on 3rd-place Boston.
The Red Sox lost 7-2 to the Chicago White Sox on Sunday, giving up 5 runs in the 9th inning. Despite solo HRs from RF Wilyer Abreu and C Connor Wong, Boston’s offense was flat. RHP Richard Fitts had a solid MLB debut (5 2/3 IP, 2 R 0 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 2 K), but the bullpen couldn’t stop Chicago’s late surge. Boston is 4 games out of the last Wild Card spot.
Orioles at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Albert Suarez vs. RHP Kutter Crawford
Suarez (7-5, 3.49 ERA) makes his 21st start and 26th appearance. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 113 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 8-1 home loss against Chicago White Sox Wednesday
- 2024 away splits: 4-3, 3.75 ERA (57 2/3 IP, 25 R (24 ER), 1.37 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 in 15 games
- Last start vs Red Sox: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 4-2 home win Aug. 18
Crawford (8-13, 4.08 ERA) makes his 30th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 161 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 2 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 7-2 road loss against New York Mets Tuesday
- 2024 home splits: 4-7, 4.06 ERA (82 IP, 42 R (37 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 in 15 starts
- 2024 vs Orioles: 0-2, 4.41 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 0.93 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 in 3 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Orioles at Red Sox odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 12:46 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Orioles -102 (bet $102 to win $100) | Red Sox -116 (bet $116 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Orioles -1.5 (+152) | Red Sox +1.5 (-184)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Orioles at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Orioles 4, Red Sox 2
Moneyline
BET ORIOLES (-102).
Baltimore is right in the mix for the AL East title, just a half-game behind the Yankees, and they’ve had Boston’s number this season, winning 7 of their 10 matchups and outscoring them 63-42. The Orioles have been solid on the road (40-29), and they’re looking to bounce back after dropping 3 of their last 4 at home.
The Red Sox, on the other hand, have been struggling, losing 6 of their last 8 games. Suarez shut down Boston in his earlier start against them, while Crawford has been shaky against Baltimore, going winless in his last 3 starts with 8 ER in 16 1/3 IP.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
I don’t love the odds, so I’ll keep my focus on the moneyline and total.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 9.5 (-105).
I’m leaning toward the UNDER 9.5 (-105) because recent matchups between these 2 have favored the Under, hitting in 3 of the last 5 games, including this same pitching matchup on Aug. 18. Both teams have hit the Under in 2 of their last 3 games.
Suarez has had the Under hit in 5 of his last 6 starts, and Crawford’s been on a similar run, with the Under hitting in 3 of his last 4 starts. With these trends, it’s looking like a low-scoring game might be on the horizon.
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