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The Baltimore Orioles (90-51) face the Boston Red Sox (72-70) Sunday in the finale of a 3-game series. First pitch from Fenway Park is at 1:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Orioles lead 5-3 after a 13-12 victory Saturday
Boston jumped to an early lead thanks to a 2-run home run by DH Justin Turner in the 1st inning. However, Baltimore would strike back and score 7 runs to lead 7-2 through the top of the 4th inning.
The Red Sox responded with 4 runs in the bottom of the frame and only trailed by 1 run heading into the 6th. The Orioles plated 2 in the 6th and both squads added 3 in the 7th inning. Baltimore added 1 more in the top of the 9th to take the lead for good despite Red Sox SS Trevor Story hitting a 2-run double followed by CF Wilyer Abreu’s RBI single to cut to get back within a single run.
Orioles at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Grayson Rodriguez vs. RHP Brayan Bello
Rodriguez (5-3, 4.91 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 through 99 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 6-3 road win vs. Los Angeles Angels on Monday
- 2023 road stats: 3-1, 4.13 ERA (48 IP, 22 ER) in 9 starts
- First career start vs. Red Sox
Bello (11-8, 3.61 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 137 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 7-3 road win vs. Tampa Bay Rays on Monday
- 2023 home stats: 4-6, 3.44 ERA (70 2/3 IP, 27 ER) in 13 starts
- Career vs. Orioles: 0-1, 5.06 ERA (5 1/3 IP, 3 ER) in 1 start
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Orioles at Red Sox odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:13 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Orioles -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Red Sox -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles -1.5 (+150) | Red Sox +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Orioles at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 7, Orioles 4
Moneyline
Bello has a better ERA at Fenway than on the road despite having a better record away from home, but that is the only bright spot for Boston as they look to avoid the sweep. There are just too many reasons to pick Baltimore to win, again.
The Orioles have an MLB-best 65.8% win rate on the road and a 62.9% win percentage after a win. The Red Sox win just 42% of the time after a loss.
BET ORIOLES (-105).
Run line/Against the spread
Boston is 42-31 ATS as an underdog, but its 14-13 ATS as a home underdog. The Red Sox have the 2nd worst ATS record after a loss in the league (27-42). Even if their numbers painted a brighter picture the current odds don’t bring a lot of value.
Baltimore’s trends and their plus-money odds are the better pick ATS. The Orioles are the best team in baseball as a favorite ATS (53.3% win rate) and they are 19-7 ATS as a road favorite — a 73.1% cover rate.
LEAN ORIOLES -1.5 (+150).
Over/Under
In divisional games both the Orioles (57.1%) and the Red Sox (63.2%) trend towards the Over. Boston’s Over record after a loss (38-30-1) is nearly as good as Baltimore’s Over record after a win (48-36-5).
The books also anticipate a higher-scoring game and set the line accordingly but based on yesterday’s game each team can go on a scoring streak.
LEAN OVER 10 (-105).
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