Well, we split the 4 plays in Week 5 on the MAC card to avoid the losing weekend. It should’ve been another 3-1 week, but Northern Illinois crumbled in the 4th quarter at Ball State and eventually lost in overtime, turning a cover and win into a straight-up loss. Let’s get back on track in Week 6.
Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the MAC’s Week 6 slate, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
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MAC best bets for Week 6
– All games listed are Saturday and ET unless noted
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 7:30 a.m. ET.
Ohio -10.5 (-112) vs. Akron – 2 p.m. (ESPN3)
If you’ve been a regular reader of this piece from the beginning, you know Akron has appeared a lot — and not as the pick. Fading the Zips is about the best thing you can do: they’re one of the worst teams in FBS and the books seem to give them a little more credit than they deserve for whatever reason.
Akron did put up a good fight against Bowling Green last weekend and played Liberty tough 2 weeks ago. However, this is a team that also barely squeaked by St. Francis (PA) of the FCS in the opener, needing OT to get the win. Akron ranks 128th in the nation in rushing, and 124th in points scored, and that defense is abysmal, too.
Ohio is looking to level up to 3-3 after a slow start. Two of their losses are to Power 5 teams Penn State and Iowa State, and last week’s OT loss at Kent State is nothing to be ashamed about. Look for the Bobcats to take out their frustrations on the poor Zips, the doormats of the MAC.
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Ball State at Central Michigan UNDER 63.5 (-108) – 3:30 p.m. (ESPN+)
The Cardinals head to Kelly/Shorts Stadium in Mount Pleasant to battle the Chippewas in a game only alumni and bettors love. Neither of these teams has played very good football to start the 2022 campaign, but there is still some hope on each side.
Ball State rallied last week for the aforementioned 44-38 OT win over Northern Illinois, covering for the 2nd time in 3 games and grabbing its first win against an FBS team this season. The Over stopped a 2-0 Under run.
Central was waxed 38-17 at Toledo in Week 5, as the Under just came in. The Under is on a 3-0 run for the Chips, it’s 6-2 in their last 8 games overall, and 4-1 in the past 6 against teams with a losing overall record. The Under is 7-3 in the past 10 MAC games for CMU, too.
The trends point to the Under for Ball State too, going 5-2 in its last 7 MAC games.
This is a nice parlay opportunity, too. Ball State has covered 7 straight trips to Mount Pleasant, and the road team is an amazing 17-4 ATS in the past 21 in this series. Ball State (+7.5, -112) and the Under is the way to go.
Toledo -5.5 (-110) at Northern Illinois – 3:30 p.m. (ESPN+)
The Rockets have rebounded nicely after getting routed 77-21 at Ohio State Sept. 17. It played a tight game at San Diego State, falling just 17-14 in a strong defensive effort, then it polished off Central Michigan 38-17 last weekend at Glass Bowl as a 6.5-point favorite in the MAC opener.
Despite having 77 hung on them by the Buckeyes, Toledo’s defensive numbers look pretty darn good. It has allowed just 339.2 total yards per game to rank 42nd, while allowing just 183.0 yards per game through the air, 23rd in the country.
NIU could go one of two ways in this one. It could be angry about last week’s disastrous 4th quarter and overtime at Ball State and fall apart against a good Toledo team, or it could channel that anger and use it as a positive against the Rockets. I’ll take NIU to fall apart.
The Huskies have to be absolutely dejected after another excruciating loss. It lost by 3 at Tulsa, it lost by 10 to Vanderbilt at home, it lost in a 1-score game at Kentucky 2 weeks ago, and then the Ball State debacle. This is a team that could be 3-2 but finds itself looking like a non-bowl team.
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Miami (Ohio) +5.5 (-112) vs. Kent State – 3:30 p.m. (ESPN+)
Let’s roll with the underdog in the final game on the card, as the trends point squarely in Miami’s favor.
Not only are the Golden Flashes of Kent State just 4-9 ATS in their past 13 road games, but the RedHawks have covered 6 of the past 8 meetings in this series, with Miami 4-1 ATS in the past 5 meetings in Oxford.
Miami has alternated losses and wins this season, including an outright win at Northwestern, technically a Power 5 team, as a 7.5-point underdog. It gave Buffalo a good fight last week before eventually falling 24-20.
Kent State isn’t as bad as its 2-3 SU record indicates, as it has 3 big-money road losses to Washington, Oklahoma and Georgia. This is a legit team that opened the MAC calendar with a 31-24 win over Ohio in OT last week. Kent State could grab the win here, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see a 3- or 4-point game — or even a Miami outright win.
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