The Atlanta Hawks (42-38) head to South Beach Friday to play the first-place Miami Heat (52-28). Tip-off at FTX Arena is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Hawks vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Atlanta bounced back from a 118-108 loss at the Toronto Raptors Tuesday to beat the Washington Wizards 118-103 the next night. The Hawks are 6-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games.
Miami hammered the Charlotte Hornets 144-115 Tuesday for its fifth consecutive victory (5-0 ATS).
The Heat are 2-1 SU and ATS versus the Hawks this season and the total is 2-1 Over/Under (O/U), but Atlanta beat Miami 110-108 at home in their last meeting Jan. 21.
Hawks at Heat odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:53 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Hawks -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Heat +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
- Against the spread: Hawks -1.5 (-112) | Heat +1.5 (-108)
- Over/Under: 229.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
Hawks at Heat key injuries
Hawks
- PF John Collins (finger) out
Heat
- C Dewayne Dedmon (ankle) questionable
- PF P.J. Tucker (calf) out
- SG Gabe Vincent (toe) questionable
[tipico]
Hawks at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 117, Hawks 112
Money line
LEAN HEAT (+102) because I prefer to take any points I can get with Miami. However, the Heat are 4-1 SU as home underdogs and play exceptional pick-and-roll, which is imperative when playing the Hawks and All-Star PG Trae Young.
Atlanta is also 26th in defensive rating and Miami tears up bad defenses. The Heat are 23-7 SU versus teams in the bottom-10 of defensive efficiency with a plus-9.1 adjusted net rating (ranked seventh) and a plus-3.6 ATS margin (ranked seventh) according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
The Heat are the right side but I’d prefer to wait to see if Miami’s spread goes north of +2.5. LEAN HEAT (+102).
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Against the spread
BET the HEAT +1.5 (-108) because I cannot reverse engineer the crazy line movement so my hunch is that the oddsmakers were correct when they made Miami a 4.5-point favorite on the opener.
Sportsbooks are aware of the Heat’s injury woes throughout the season yet still opened Miami as a clear favorite. Even if the Heat are sitting several key contributors, Miami’s role players can hold down the fort at home.
Furthermore, this is a bad spot for Atlanta and a good one for Miami. The Hawks are 4-14 ATS on the road versus teams with a winning record, 1-4 ATS in their last five visits to Miami and 9-11 ATS with a rest disadvantage. While the Heat are 9-6 ATS with 2-3 days off and a plus-6.6 ATS margin.
However, I’d wait until the official starting 5s are announced in case the HEAT +1.5 (-108) increases because, if they don’t, I’d still bet Miami up to a 2.5-point favorite.
Over/Under
PASS because my prediction aligns with the market’s projected score so there’s no value for me in this total.
For what it’s worth, Atlanta is 42-38 O/U and 9-7 O/U as a road favorite while Miami is 47-32-1 O/U and 3-2 O/U as a home underdog. But, a vast majority of the market is on the Over, per Tipico.
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