The Atlanta Braves (47-26) wrap up a 3-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies (38-35) on Thursday at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Braves lead 3-2
Wednesday’s matchup was postponed due to weather and the Braves won the series open 4-2 on Tuesday. Atlanta is currently on a 7-game win streak, and instead of starting RHP AJ Smith-Shawver as they planned for Wednesday, it will be RHP Bryce Elder on the mound Thursday.
The 2-run loss on Tuesday snapped a 6-game win streak for the Phillies, although they remain 9 games back of the Braves in the NL East. Wednesday’s projected starter, RHP Aaron Nola, is still expected to take the mound Thursday.
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Braves at Phillies projected starters
RHP Bryce Elder vs. RHP Aaron Nola
Elder (5-1, 2.60 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 through 83 IP.
- Has logged 6 innings or more in 9 of his first 14 starts
- Has given up 4 ER or more in 2 of his last 3 outings
Nola (6-5, 4.66 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 through 94 2/3 IP.
- Has allowed 4 ER or more in 6 of his last 9 starts
- May 25 at the Braves: 5 ER on 8 H with 2 BB and 7 K in 6 IP
Braves at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Braves -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Phillies -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+135) | Phillies +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Braves at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 5, Phillies 4
Moneyline
I’ll side with the BRAVES (-115) on the road in this NL East showdown despite Nola being on the mound for the Phillies. Atlanta is a league-best 23-11 on the road this season and owns the best overall record in the National League.
Run line/Against the spread
Elder has looked solid for the Braves this season, but the Phillies are much more imposing with OF Bryce Harper back in the lineup. Philadelphia should keep this game close at home, which is why I’ll PASS on the run line.
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Over/Under
BET OVER 8.5 (-115).
The Braves have arguably the best lineup in baseball and already produced 5 runs in their previous meeting with Nola this season. Since the start of June, Atlanta leads the league in ISO (.235), wOBA (.399), and wRC+ (150) against right-handed pitching.
The Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these clubs in Philadelphia and 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings overall.
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