The Atlanta Braves (25-27) meet the Colorado Rockies (23-28) Friday at Coors Field for the 2nd of their 4-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Rockies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Atlanta crushed Colorado 13-6 Thursday in the series opener and first meeting of the season, highlighted by Braves C Travis d’Arnaud‘s 2-HR and 6-RBI night.
Braves at Rockies projected starters
LHP Max Fried vs. RHP Chad Kuhl
Fried is 5-2 with a 3.10 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 61 IP over 10 starts.
- Last start: Won 6-3 Sunday at home vs. the Miami Marlins with 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 5 K.
- Career at Coors Field: 1-0 with a 3.12 ERA (8 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 8 H, 1 HR, 4 BB and 6 K in 1 start and 1 bullpen outing.
Kuhl is 4-2 with a 3.56 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 48 IP over 9 starts.
- Last start: Won 3-2 Saturday at the Washington Nationals with 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 7 K.
- 2021 vs. the Braves: One start while pitching for the Pittsburgh Pirates, a no-decision in Pittsburgh’s 2-1 home win with 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 7 K.
Braves at Rockies odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:22 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Braves -180 (bet $180 to win $100) | Rockies +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (-120) | Rockies +1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 11.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)
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Braves at Rockies picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 7, Rockies 3
Money line
LEAN BRAVES (-180) because this is on the fringe of my price range and might opt to be greedy by using Atlanta’s ML in a parlay with another similarly priced line for a better payout. But, I want action on the Braves here since they have a significant pitching advantage.
Fried is the ace of the reigning World Series champs and has elite stuff. Four of Fried’s 5 pitches have a minus-run value (RV) and he grades in the 95th percentile in chase rate (per Statcast) and Fried’s FIP is lower than his ERA.
Kuhl is off to a nice year himself but grades in the 38th percentile or worse in chase rate, hard-hit rate and exit velocity, according to Statcast. Kuhl’s slider is one of the more effective pitches in the MLB but 4 of his other 5 pitches have a plus-RV.
Also, Atlanta’s bullpen ranks far ahead of Colorado’s in WAR (3.2-0.8), ERA (5.28-3.34), FIP (4.28-2.95), K/BB rate (3.04-1.86) and chase rate (34.2-30.2%), per FanGraphs.
Finally, Atlanta’s ML has taken heavy sharp action as the Braves opened at -161 but are all the way up to -180, according to Pregame.com.
Let’s follow the money and RISK 1 unit on the BRAVES (-180) instead of betting 1 unit.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
There might not be a good return on investment for laying it with RL favorites visiting Coors Field so the Braves -1.5 (-120) is a no-go. The Rockies are 38-24 RL as home underdogs since the beginning of last year.
Over/Under
Slight LEAN to the UNDER 11.5 (-130) there’s reverse line movement headed south of the total in the betting market and the Under has cashed in 5 of the last 7 Braves-Rockies meetings in Colorado.
According to Pregame.com, roughly 90% of the cash is on the Over 11.5 (+105) but the Under is more expensive, which suggests the oddsmakers are trying to entice more action on the Over.
That said, Coors Field is notoriously the most hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball, Atlanta’s lineup has been raking the last 2 weeks and Colorado’s lineup ranks highly in several advanced hitting metrics vs. left-handed pitching.
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