The Atlanta Braves (36-40) wrap up their four-game series with the Cincinnati Reds (38-37) Sunday at Great American Ball Park with a 1:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Reds lead 2-1.
LHP Kyle Muller makes his second career start for the Braves. Muller is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA (5 IP, 3 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 across one start and one relief appearance.
- Muller is the seventh highest-rated prospect in Atlanta’s organization, according to FanGraphs.com, and has a five-pitch arsenal (4-seam fastball, slider, curveball, sinker and changeup) with a 4-seamer nearing 95 mph.
RHP Tyler Mahle is Cincinnati’s projected starter. Mahle is 7-2 with a 3.56 ERA (78 1/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 across 15 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 4 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 8 K in Cincinnati’s 7-5 loss at the Minnesota Twins Monday.
- vs. Braves on the current roster: 41 at-bats with a .293/.341/.610 slash line, 12/3 K/BB, 3 HR and 13 RBIs.
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Braves at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:43 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Braves +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Reds -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Braves +1.5 (-145) | Reds -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Braves 6, Reds 4
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to the BRAVES (+125) for a quarter unit if at all only because Atlanta’s run line has a lot more value in my eyes and the Braves starter is a bit of a wild card since he’s a highly touted prospect but was recently called up to “The Show.”
However, Mahle’s basic pitching numbers vs. active Braves hitters are bad, but his pitching peripherals are even worse. Mahle has a 5.66 FIP, .377 expected wOBA and .537 expected slugging percentage in 31 plate appearances against current Atlanta batters.
Also, Mahle is more effective on the road than in his home ballpark, which is notoriously hitter-friendly.
Mahle has a 6.93 ERA at home with a .273/.327/.495 opponent slash line and .354 wOBA and has given up double the home runs in less than half the batters in Cincinnati.
Compare those numbers to Mahle’s 2.01 road ERA, .188/.274/.293 road opponent slash line and a .257 wOBA.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the BRAVES +1.5 (-145) for a half unit because the “backdoor” is always open in Cincinnati with the Reds’ terrible bullpen.
Cincinnati’s bullpen gives up the most home runs per nine innings, is 22nd in SIERA, 25th in xFIP and dead-last in left-on-base percentage.
Additionally, the Braves are 12-6 ATS as road underdogs this year with a plus-1.3 run line margin while the Reds are 13-15 ATS as home favorites.
Since Atlanta is covering 66.7% of the time as a road dog, I’m cool with spending a little extra for the Braves +1.5 (-145), which has an implied win probability of 59.2%.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS since I much prefer Atlanta’s sides more than the total because Cincinnati’s lineup ranks 20th in wOBA and 21st in wRC+ against left-handed pitching.
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