The Atlanta Braves (36-39) meet the Cincinnati Reds (37-37) in the third game of their four-game series Saturday in Great American Ball Park at 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Atlanta evened the series Friday with a 3-2 win as LHP Drew Smyly outdueled Cincinnati RHP Vladimir Gutierrez. Smyly gave up just one earned run on six hits across six frames with three strikeouts and no walks.
Season series: Tied 1-1.
RHP Ian Anderson makes his 15th start of the season for the Braves. Anderson is 5-3 with a 3.33 ERA (75 2/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 1-0, with 5 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 5 K Monday at the New York Mets.
- 2021 road splits: 3-2 with a 2.37 ERA (38 IP, 10 ER), 1.18 WHIP and 2.3 K/BB rate.
RHP Luis Castillo is on the mound for the Reds. Castillo is 2-10 with a 5.61 ERA (77 IP, 48 ER), 1.51 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 across 15 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 3-2, with 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB and 7 K Sunday at the San Diego Padres.
- vs. Braves on the current roster: 100 at-bats with a .300/.340/.390 slash line, 23/6 K/BB, 1 HR and 14 RBIs.
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Braves at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Braves +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Reds -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Braves +1.5 (-175) | Reds -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Braves 5, Reds 4
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the BRAVES (+110) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit because there’s value in Atlanta’s First 5 Innings run line since Anderson is a far better starter than Castillo.
However, this is a “contrarian play” against a market that has steamed the Reds up from a opening favorite of -114 to the current number.
Anderson has been more effective on the road this season than in Atlanta and Castillo’s numbers are actually worse at home than in road starts.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the BRAVES +0.5 (-130) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit as insurance for our Atlanta First 5 Innings money line bet and as a way to avoid having to sweat the Braves’ sketchy bullpen.
Atlanta’s bullpen ranks 23rd in both SIERA and xFIP and 24th in left-on-base percentage and is tied for 10th in blown saves.
While Cincinnati’s bullpen is as bad or even worse in most of those metrics, the Reds’ relievers are more well-rested entering Saturday.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 5 (-110) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit.
Despite Castillo’s awful basic pitching numbers, there’s a silver lining. He has allowed three or fewer earned runs in his past four outings and he lasted six or more innings in three of those starts.
Castillo’s exit velocity is a career-best and his ERA estimators (xFIP and SIERA) are both a full run less than his actual ERA.
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