The Atlanta Braves (6-9) wrap up their three-game set with the host Chicago Cubs (6-8) in the rubber match Sunday at Wrigley Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: 1-1.
RHP Bryse Wilson makes his 2021 debut for the Braves Sunday. A majority of Wilson’s work since he was called up to the Show in 2018 has been as a reliever.
For his career, Wilson is 3-1 with a 5.91 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, 5.3 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 8 bullpen appearances and 7 starts.
In his only career starts vs. the Cubs, Wilson got a no-decision on 4 1/3 IP with 4 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 6 K’s in Atlanta’s 9-7 loss back in June 2019.
RHP Kyle Hendricks gets the nod for the Cubs. Hendricks is 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 2 starts this year.
Hendricks took a no-decision in his last outing against the Milwaukee Brewers April 7. He pitched six scoreless innings with 4 H, 1 BB and 6 K’s in Chicago’s 4-2 loss.
In his four career starts vs. the Braves, Hendricks is 1-1 with a 2.91 ERA (21 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 26 H, 8 BB’s and 21 K’s.
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Braves at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:50 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Braves +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Cubs -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Braves +1.5 (-160) | Cubs -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Braves 5, Cubs 3
Money line (ML)
While the public action is split between these teams, the “sharp” side of the market is hammering the BRAVES (+115), which has steamed this line down from Chicago laying -140 on the opener.
Also, current Braves batters have hit well vs. Hendricks, they are slashing .292/.350/.478 with 4 home runs and 14 RBIs in 113 at-bats.
Technically, seven of these at-bats are against Braves pitches and fourth-year phenom OF Ronald Acuña Jr. has went yard in one of his three plate appearances vs. Hendricks.
In fact, this Atlanta lineup is way more dangerous now than in Hendricks’ first three starts vs. the Braves. Hendrick’s last start against Atlanta was in 2019 and he allowed 10 hits and seven runs (two earned) including two home runs.
BET BRAVES (+115) for 1 unit.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS on the run line since the Braves +1.5 (-160) is a little out of my price range and Chicago enters the game with an obvious edge in the starting pitching match-up.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS with a lean to the Over 8.5 (-120) because the “sharp” side of the market is betting the Over, I envision Atlanta’s lineup getting good wood on Hendricks’ stuff and the Braves are 7-1-1 O/U in their last nine games.
However, my hesitation to actually wager on the Over is because Hendricks is notoriously tough at Wrigley Field and the Under has cashed in Hendricks’ last four starts with 10 or more days of rest.
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