The Atlanta Braves (19-14) and Boston Red Sox (12-22) open a three-game series at Fenway Park Monday with the first pitch slated for 7:30 p.m. ET. We analyze the Braves-Red Sox betting odds and lines, with MLB picks and best bets.
Braves at Red Sox: Projected starting pitchers
LHP Max Fried vs. RHP Colten Brewer
Fried has been a stud for the Braves this season, going 5-0 with a stellar 1.35 ERA.
- Fried’s strikeout rate (8.6 K/9) is actually down from the past two seasons, but he has yet to allow a home run.
- Fried leads the NL in ERA, looking like a legitimate Cy Young candidate.
Brewer has struggled like much of the Red Sox’s pitching staff, starting 0-2 with a 4.57 ERA.
- Brewer has started three games this season but has only been used as an opener in those games, pitching no more than 4.0 innings in any appearance.
- His worst outing of the season came last Wednesday against the Toronto Blue Jays, allowing four runs in 3 2/3 innings.
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Braves at Red Sox: Key injuries
Get the latest injury news here.
Braves
- OF Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring) probable
- 2B Ozzie Albies (wrist) out
Red Sox
- OF Andrew Benintendi (ribs) out
- OF/DH J.D. Martinez (wrist) questionable
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Braves at Red Sox: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:50 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Braves 5, Red Sox 2
Moneyline (ML)
With their ace on the mound, the BRAVES (-189) are big favorites over the Red Sox (+170) in this series opener. Atlanta is just 6-4 in its last 10 games, but has not lost a start by Fried all season.
The Braves should win this game fairly easily, especially with Benintendi out and Martinez questionable for the BoSox. Assuming Acuna is able to play, the Braves offense shouldn’t have much trouble putting runs across the plate. Take the BRAVES to win outright.
New to sports betting? A winning $10 bet on the Braves ML returns a profit of $5.29. A $10 bet on the Red Sox ML profits $17 if they prevail.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
As much as I like the Braves to win straight-up, the run line is an even better bet. The recommended line of -1.5 comes in at a respectable -125, which still leaves plenty of upside with that wager.
Atlanta will cover the spread and win by at least a couple of runs, which is why I’m going with the BRAVES on the RL.
Over/Under (O/U)
Bet UNDER 9.5 (-110). Fried will keep the Red Sox in check. The total has gone Under in four of Atlanta’s last six games, a trend that should continue in Boston Monday. Even with Boston’s offense performing relatively well, it hasn’t faced an ace like Fried often this season.
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