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The Oklahoma Sooners (6-6) face the Navy Midshipmen (9-3) in the 2024 Armed Forces Bowl Friday. Kickoff from TCU’s Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas, is scheduled for noon ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Oklahoma vs. Navy odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
After a 6-0 start, Navy was No. 24 in in the US LBM Coaches Poll but dropped out after a 51-14 rout by then-No. 11 Notre Dame at MetLife Stadium. The Irish, who were 14-point favorites in that contest, are now No. 3 and in the final 8 of the College Football Playoff.
The Midshipmen finished the season strong, though, winning 3 of their last 4 games — including a 31-13 triumph Dec. 14 as 6- point road underdogs in the annual spotlight battle with rival Army. QB Blake Horvath chewed up 311 yards (204 rushing, 107 passing on 7 attempts) and accounted for 4 TDs (2 rushing, 2 passing), punctuating a fantastic season leading this rejuvenated Navy offense that saw him use his legs to compile 1,091 rushing yards with 15 TDs. He also had 1,261 passing yards (73 completions in 127 attempts) with 13 touchdowns vs. 4 picks.
Oklahoma lost 5 of its last 7 games following a 4-1 start to the season. The Sooners finished an ugly 2-6 in the SEC, but they did beat then-No. 7 Alabama 24-3 in Norman Nov. 23. OU was a 13.5-point underdog in that stunner, which pretty much kept the Crimson Tide out of the College Football Playoff. The Sooners’ last action was a 37-17 loss as 6-point underdogs at LSU Nov. 30, during which OU mustered 277 offensive yards.
As if things couldn’t get any worse for the Sooners, QB Jackson Arnold (headed to Auburn) is among a large group of players who entered the transfer portal — On3.com reports the count is up to 26. Plus, several Sooners opted out of the bowl game to prepare for the NFL Draft. There is some good news. Washington State QB John Mateer, one of the more sought QBs in the portal, announced he’s transferring to Oklahoma (for next season).
That’s inconvenient timing for anyone seeking to back Oklahoma in this Armed Forces Bowl. Will the market adjust by Friday’s kickoff? And how should bettors handle these developments?
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Oklahoma vs. Navy odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Thursday at 2:14 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Oklahoma -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Navy +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
- Against the spread (ATS): Oklahoma -3 (-115) | Navy +3 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 43.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Oklahoma vs. Navy picks and predictions
Prediction
Navy 24, Oklahoma 14
Moneyline
Navy’s 2024 revival has allowed the school to exceed sports betting market expectations, going 8-4 ATS — with an identical 8-4 O/U record. The disrespect continues in its bowl game, especially while Oklahoma is undergoing a significant transition.
Sure, Oklahoma plays in the SEC and ranks 12th in run defense (105.8 yards per game), but Navy’s ground game should dictate the pace — it ranks seventh in rushing yards per game (249.7). Navy’s Horvath has the clear advantage under center over Oklahoma freshman QB Michael Hawkins Jr., who started 3 games in the middle of the season when Arnold was benched.
BET NAVY (+130).
Against the spread
Bettors who want a more conservative approach to Navy optimism should pounce at the spread and take the points.
Over/Under
When we mix Navy’s run-first approach and sometimes plodding offensive pace with Oklahoma’s scoring woes, the Oklahoma-Navy best bet is fading the total.
Sure, Navy is potent enough to carry the Over on its own, but any total that exceeds 39.5 is severely overestimating this game’s scoreboard ceiling.
Luckily, the over-optimism of this market plays in our favor.
BET UNDER 43.5 (-110).
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