The No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (9-1, 5-1 in SEC) hosts the No. 22 Arkansas Razorbacks (7-3, 3-3) in an SEC West showdown Saturday at Bryant-Denny Stadium. The kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Arkansas vs. Alabama odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
Rankings courtesy of the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Arkansas went into “Death Valley” in Week 11 and beat the LSU Tigers 16-13 in overtime but pushed as 3-point road favorites. The Razorbacks are led by their ground game that attempts the second-most rushes per game and averages the second-most rushing yards per game in the SEC.
Arkansas is 5-4-1 ATS and 6-4 O/U with the 17th-toughest strength of schedule, according to USA Today’s Jeff Sagarin.
Alabama won its fourth straight game Saturday by hammering the New Mexico State Aggies 59-3, covering a massive 51.5-point spread.
Crimson Tide QB Bryce Young has the second-best passer efficiency rating in the country (179.9) and the third-most passing touchdowns (33). Alabama is 6-4 ATS and 5-5 O/U with the 44th-toughest schedule, according to Sagarin.
Arkansas at Alabama odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:15 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Arkansas +800 (bet $100 to win $800) | Alabama -1600 (bet $1,600 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Arkansas +20.5 (-107) | Alabama -20.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 58.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Arkansas at Alabama odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Alabama 41, Arkansas 14
Money line
PASS because the Crimson Tide needs to win this game if they have any hope of making the College Football Playoffs, but Alabama (-1600) is an outrageous price.
Don’t include Alabama (-1600) in a money line parlay either. There’s no value in playing the money line in this game unless you think Arkansas (+800) can pull off a miracle.
Against the spread
Arkansas is a one-dimensional offense that runs the ball at the sixth-highest rate in college football.
Alabama has one of the best rushing defenses in the country. For instance, the Crimson Tide’s defense ranks fifth in rushing predicted points added (PPA), seventh in rushing success rate, third in line yards per snap, and sixth in open field yards.
On top of that, Alabama has the ninth-best defensive third-down conversion rate and sixth-best defensive success rate on passing downs. The question isn’t “can Alabama win?” It’s “how much will Alabama win by?”
Well, the Crimson Tide have beaten the Razorbacks by at least 32 points in their last four meetings. So, I’ll like the chalky ALABAMA -20.5 (-115) wager to cash this year as well.
Over/Under
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 58.5 (-108) because there’s more money wagered on the Under whereas more bets have been placed on the Over, according to Pregame.com. Typically, in sports betting, it’s wise to follow the money when it’s counter to the public.
Furthermore, I think Alabama’s defense squashes Arkansas’s offense. However, since I’m betting and rooting for a Crimson Tide blowout, I’ll stick with Alabama to cover the spread.
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