The Arizona State Sun Devils moved onto the middle of the bubble with their win over Arizona. That win put them in position to play their way into the NCAA Tournament. It didn’t actually put them in the tournament itself. Everyone agreed there was more work to be done.
If ASU had beaten UCLA on Thursday night in Pauley Pavilion, the Sun Devils could have begun booking plane flights for the Big Dance.
Instead, they lost 79-61, a face-plant when they at least needed a good showing. Even if they lost, they needed to lose in a competitive game, but they did not come close to the Bruins, who led by double figures for nearly the last 14 minutes of play.
This loss very clearly leaves ASU behind USC on the bubble, and it means the Sun Devils need to beat USC to make the NCAA Tournament.
The value of a USC win in itself would be substantial, but here’s the other reason why ASU needs to beat the Trojans on Saturday: Pac-12 Tournament seeding and positioning.
If ASU loses to USC, it doesn’t just miss out on one of its few remaining quality-win opportunities; ASU would probably not finish in the top four of the Pac-12 standings. If Oregon beats Stanford this weekend (highly probable), ASU would fall out of the top four. This means ASU has to play a low-end seed (Cal, Stanford, Oregon State) in a first-round game. That game would carry no value beyond avoiding a catastrophic resume hit. Then ASU would have to play a quarterfinal against an opponent which probably wouldn’t carry a whole lot of value. ASU would need to get into the semifinals and put up a good fight against a top team (UCLA or Arizona) to feel somewhat comfortable about making the tournament.
It becomes so much easier for ASU if it beats the Trojans. That’s the direct path the Sun Devils want. If they lose to USC, they’re in big trouble heading to Vegas for the Pac-12 Tournament.
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