The Arizona Diamondbacks (42-83) and Pittsburgh Pirates (44-80) meet Monday at 7:05 p.m. ET to open a three-game series at PNC Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Humberto Mejia is the projected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks. The 24-year-old will be making his first big league start of 2021
- Started three games for the Miami Marlins in 2020. He was 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA allowing 6 ER on 13 H and 6 BB with 11 K across 10 IP.
- Has posted a 5.30 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over 86 2/3 combined innings pitched at Double- and Triple-A this season.
RHP Wil Crowe is the projected starter for the Pirates. He is 3-7 with a 5.23 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, and 4.5 BB/9 across 84 1/3 IP over 19 games (18 starts).
- Has been hurt by a 19.8% home run/fly ball rate, but since July 1 he has allowed 1 or 0 HR in six of eight starts while recording a 3.72 ERA.
- Owns a 4.35 ERA at home vs. a 6.07 mark on the road and has a 3.30 ERA over his last 30 IP at PNC Park.
Diamondbacks at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:07 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Diamondbacks +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Pirates -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-205) | Pirates -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +110 | U: -135)
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Prediction
Pirates 6, Diamondbacks 4
Money line (ML)
After taking six of seven games from the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies Aug. 12-19, the Diamondbacks dropped two of three at Colorado over the weekend. However, Arizona’s bats have come around recently and its solidly bottom-third offense has posted an .858 OPS since Aug. 12.
The D-Backs have also pitched better of late. Arizona hurlers logged a 2.57 ERA over its seven-game stretch against the playoff-contending Padres and Phillies.
Despite winning two of three games at the St. Louis Cardinals over the weekend the Pirates are just 4-16 in August. The pitching has been shaky recording 5.55 ERA this month, and the batting numbers (.584 OPS in August) are atrocious too.
From the looks of the prices here the recent results have opened up some betting leverage on this game. Arizona has been buoyed by a league-best .339 batting average on balls in play this month; Pittsburgh has been hurt by a .269 BABIP figure.
Crowe’s recent relative success and his home-park numbers make for a big advantage in the starting pitcher matchup. Peg the Pittsburgh bullpen as being in better shape coming off the weekend. That’s especially true at the back end where leads are preserved.
The snakes have dropped their last seven mid-road trip openers.
TAKE PITTSBURGH (-125).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS on what is a little too risky of an ATS play.
Over/Under (O/U)
Both bullpens profile as fly-ball units. There is some upside to the Pittsburgh offensive numbers and enough starting-pitcher gray area to justify the OVER 9.5 (+110). Especially on a warm, humid evening with a slight batter’s breeze in the forecast.
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