The Arizona Diamondbacks (44-85) and Philadelphia Phillies (63-64) meet Friday for the second game of their four-game set at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Taylor Widener is the projected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks. Widener is 2-1 with a 4.34 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, and 4.7 BB/9 over 56 IP across 12 starts.
- Faced the Phillies two starts back and allowed 1 run on 2 hits through 5 IP. Has worked around 10 BB to post a 2.40 ERA in his last 15 IP.
- Has not pitched well at home but owns a 3.16 ERA over 37 frames on the road.
- Has benefited from a .252 batting average on balls in play and an 81.6% left-on-base rate.
RHP Aaron Nola is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, and 2.1 BB/9 through 143 1/3 IP over 25 starts.
- Allowed 3 R (2 ER) on 2 H and 2 BB across 8 2/3 IP while tossing a season-high 117 pitches in his last start. Went just 13 1/3 IP with a 6.08 ERA over his previous three starts.
- Owns a 2.96 ERA and 1.09 WHIP at home since 2019.
Diamondbacks at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:25 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Diamondbacks +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Phillies -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-105) | Phillies -1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)
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Prediction
Diamondbacks 5, Phillies 4
Money line (ML)
The Snakes won Thursday’s opener 8-7 and are 3-4 through the first seven games of a three-stop, 10-game road trip. The Diamondbacks have been hitting well on the journey with an .809 OPS over the seven games. They own a hard-hitting .817 OPS since Aug. 10.
Philadelphia started August by winning eight straight games but is just 4-11 since. Philly has scored just 3.1 runs per game with a .611 OPS over that span.
The D-Backs are a bad team but still a slightly undervalued one. With some lean against Nola coming off the big pitch count, BACK ARIZONA (+200).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS on the run line unless you can wait out an Arizona plus-money tag.
Over/Under (O/U)
Fading Nola on a “next time out” situation gets added to Widener being somewhat overvalued by his surface line. Mix in a Diamdonbacks batting order in high-production mode and a warm, humid, breeze-out night in Philadelphia.
There is a sliver of value on the OVER 8.5 (-122).
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