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The Arizona Diamondbacks (82-73) and New York Yankees (78-77) close out a 3-game series Monday. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is set for 1:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: tied 1-1
Arizona is in a tight battle for one of the final NL Wild Card spots. The Diamondbacks have greatly improved their chances by winning 6 of their last 7 games to move into the 2nd Wild Card sport and now have a slight edge on the rest of the pack heading into the season’s final week.
The Yankees were eliminated from playoff contention over the weekend and are 2-3 on their current homestand and 41-39 at Yankee Stadium this season. New York had not missed the postseason since 2016.
Diamondbacks at Yankees projected starters
RHP Merrill Kelly vs. RHP Clarke Schmidt
Kelly (12-7, 3.37 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 165 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 7-1 home win vs. San Francisco Giants Wednesday
- 2023 road stats: 7-3, 4.10 ERA (79 IP, 36 ER) with 8.7 K/9 in 14 starts
- Career vs. Yankees: 1-0, 1.69 ERA (5 1/3 IP, 1 ER) in 1 career start in 2019
Schmidt (9-9, 4.65 ERA) makes his 31st start and 32nd appearance. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 151 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 1 K in 7-1 home loss vs. Toronto Blue Jays Tuesday
- 2023 home stats: 4-6, 4.14 ERA (82 2/3 IP, 38 ER) in 16 starts and 1 relief appearance
- Had gotten back on track following an 8 ER blowup in mid-August, posting 26/5 K/BB and a 3.47 ERA over his next 4 starts, however, he’s surrendered 7 ER in 10 1/3 IP with an ugly 4/5 K/BB and 3 HR allowed over his last 2 starts
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Diamondbacks at Yankees odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:24 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Yankees +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks -1.5 (+135) | Yankees +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Diamondbacks at Yankees picks and predictions
Prediction
Diamondbacks 5, Yankees 4
Moneyline
Kelly has had an excellent season, though he has been very up and down lately. He has recorded 11 or more strikeouts 3 times in his last 8 starts but has also allowed 7 ER twice along that span.
The odds are in Kelly’s favor against a Yankee offense that is bottom 6 in both runs scored per game at home and wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching. Furthermore, Arizona has a lot on the line, and siding with the DIAMONDBACKS (-130) is the smart move here.
Run line/Against the spread
Though both pitchers have shown to be prone to blowups in recent weeks, most signs point to this game staying pretty close throughout. Arizona is likely to come out on top, but the value on the moneyline is a little more appealing. PASS on this line.
Over/Under
The Arizona bats have come to life lately, plating 42 runs over their past 7 games, a span in which they have won 6 times. The Yankees, meanwhile, have tallied just 17 runs across their past 6 contests.
The final score is likely to end up very close to this total, but given the recent inconsistency of both starting pitchers, it’s best to make a small play on OVER 7.5 (-110).
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