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The New York Mets (24-34) welcome the Arizona Diamondbacks (26-32) to Citi Field Sunday. First pitch in the finale of their 4-game series is set for 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mets lead 2-1
The Mets have closed as an underdog in 2 of 3 games in the series. While 2-1 straight up, they are 1-2 against the spread (ATS). New York won 3-2 on Thursday and 10-9 on Friday, but lost 10-5 on Saturday.
The Mets have lost 4 of their last 6 games, having been swept by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the series prior, and are 6-14 in their last 20 games. New York is 25-33 ATS and sits 4th in the NL East.
The Diamondbacks snapped a 5-game losing streak with the win Saturday. They are 4-5 straight up over their last 9 road games and 13-17 away from home. Arizona sits 4th in the NL West.
Diamondbacks at Mets projected starters
RHP Brandon Pfaadt vs. LHP Jose Quintana
Pfaadt (2-4, 4.16 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 67 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 5 K in a 4-2 road loss to the Texas Rangers Tuesday
- 2024 road splits: 1-2, 4.50 ERA (36 IP, 18 ER), 30 H, 3 HR, 8 BB, 34 K in 6 starts
- Has never faced the Mets as a starter
Quintana (1-5, 5.06 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 in 58 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 3 K in a 3-0 home loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers Tuesday
- 2024 home splits: 0-3, 3.45 ERA (28 2/3 IP, 11 ER), 27 H, 6 HR, 8 BB, 17 K in 5 starts
- Career vs. Diamondbacks: 0-2, 7.53 ERA (28 2/3 IP, 24 ER), 1.57 WHIP, 7.5 K/9 in 6 starts
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Diamondbacks at Mets odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:12 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Mets +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks -1.5 (+140) | Mets +1.5 (-170)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -102 | U: -120)
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Diamondbacks at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 6, Diamondbacks 4
Moneyline
BET METS (+102).
The Diamondbacks have the 2nd-worst record in MLB following a win at 8-17. Arizona has lost its last 2 games as a moneyline favorite.
While the Mets haven’t outperformed expectations this season, they do have a strong lineup and have scored 15 runs in their last 2 games. Also, Quintana is coming off a solid start against the Dodgers in his last time out.
Back METS (+102).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
There’s not much value here. The Mets are too pricey as a run-line underdog, paying almost 2x the potential reward for this one, and the Diamondbacks are too risky as a run-line favorite.
Over/Under
BET OVER 8.5 (-102).
The Diamondbacks have gone 7-7 O/U in their last 14 games and have gone Over in their last 2, scoring 19 total runs. Arizona has allowed 5 or more runs in 3 of its last 4 games.
The Mets have gone Over in 3 of their last 4 games and are 30-27-1 O/U on the season. They have given up 9 or more runs in 3 of their last 4 games. With neither team having an ace on the mound, expect runs to keep coming in and back OVER 8.5 (-102).
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