[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]
The Arizona Diamondbacks (25-30) and New York Mets (22-33) meet Friday as they continue a 4-game set at Citi Field. First pitch is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mets lead 1-0
Arizona dropped Thursday’s series lid-lifter 3-2, and the Diamondbacks are just 1-8 across their last 9 games against the Mets.
New York won the opener despite being held under 4 runs for the 5th time in their last 6 games. Over that span, New York has registered a paltry .574 OPS.
Diamondbacks at Mets projected starters
LHP Jordan Montgomery vs. RHP Luis Severino
Montgomery (3-2, 4.69 ERA) is lined up for his 8th start. He has a 1.41 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 5.4 K/9 in 40 1/3 IP.
- Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 3-2 win vs. Miami Marlins Saturday
- Career vs. Mets: 0-3, 8.40 ERA (15 IP, 14 ER), 23 H, 7 BB, 21 K in 4 starts
- Has a 2.70 ERA on the road this season and owns a 3.12 road mark since 2022
Severino (2-2, 3.22 ERA) is making his 11th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 4 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 58 2/3 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 7 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 7-2 loss vs. San Francisco Giants Saturday
- Has never faced the Diamondbacks
Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! BHQ offers Draft Prep and full-season subscriptions. Sign up today and start winning!
Diamondbacks at Mets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:24 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Diamondbacks -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Mets -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks -1.5 (+165) | Mets +1.5 (-200)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]
Diamondbacks at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Diamondbacks 5, Mets 4
Moneyline
New York has not won back-to-back games since May 6-7, and the Metropolitans have won 2 in a row just once since April 20.
The Snakes have a 10-6 stretch which is not too far back in the rearview mirror. Arizona logged that mark –while posting a .739 OPS while going 6-3 in 9 road games — from May 5-22.
Left-handers turn the Mets into the lesser side of their platoon numbers (.658 OPS vs. southpaws); New York is just 4-9 against lefty starters. Montgomery has been hurt by a .318 batting average on balls in play. His ERA history against the Mets is misleading: he’s held current New York bats to an aggregate .662 OPS (ESPN).
Severino is coming off a 103-pitch effort in his last. His only other 100-pitch game this season was followed by a clunker the next time out, and he’s backed by a bullpen that figures to be under a fatigue caution flag, especially at the back end.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the value price here: ARIZONA (-102) is a play worthy of an account login.
Run line/Against the spread
A slight uptick in the return for Arizona minus a cushion would be enticing. But both clubs have played more 1-run games than average, and despite some pressure on the Over, these offenses could fall into a low-scoring pitcher’s duel for a 2nd straight night.
PASS.
Over/Under
The Over is 3-1 across the last 4 series meetings.
Severino’s ERA is tamped down by a friendly .235 BABIP. Both clubs have thus far played schedules tilting toward better-than-average pitching. Their offenses are not great, but they’re likely better than what shows in their surface numbers to date. And the Mets have a woeful .619 OPS at home, but that’s a number artificially held in place by a .246 BABIP.
On an evening with an outward-blowing breeze in the forecast, TAKE THE OVER 7.5 (+100).
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.
Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]