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The Arizona Diamondbacks (76-70) and New York Mets (66-78) play the 3rd game of their 4-game series Wednesday. First pitch from Citi Field is 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mets lead 4-1
The Diamondbacks lost 7-4 Tuesday as they failed to build on Monday’s 4-3 series-opening win. Arizona is 4-2 on to start an 8-game road trip and owns a 1-game lead over the Cincinnati Reds for the final NL Wild Card.
Tuesday’s win was just the Mets’ 7th in their last 18 games. They have been eliminated from contention in the NL East and trail the Diamondbacks in the wild card by 9 games.
Diamondbacks at Mets projected starters
RHP Zac Gallen vs. LHP Joey Lucchesi
Gallen (15-7, 3.31 ERA) makes his 31st start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 187 2/3 IP.
- Last start: win, 9 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 1-0 road win over Chicago Cubs Friday
- 2023 road stats: 4-5 with 4.36 ERA across 16 starts
Lucchesi (2-0, 3.54 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 through 28 IP.
- Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 7-1 road win over St. Louis Cardinals on Aug. 18
- Has made just one start in the Majors since May 13 due to demotion to the minors and injury
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Diamondbacks at Mets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:47 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Mets +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks -1.5 (+110) | Mets +1.5 (-135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Diamondbacks at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Diamondbacks 4, Mets 3
Moneyline
Gallen pitched a complete-game shutout in his last outing after serving up 11 runs over his 2 previous turns. He has a career 2.25 ERA in 3 starts at Citi Field and has allowed 1 or fewer runs in 4 of his last 6 starts.
Even with 7 runs on Tuesday, the Mets have only averaged 3.3 runs over their last 6 games.
BET DIAMONDBACKS (-150).
Run line/Against the spread
The Diamondbacks’ last 3 wins have been by only 1 run, including Gallen’s last outing.
Five of the Mets’ last 7 losses have been only by 1 run. They are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games.
I like the Diamondbacks to win with Gallen on the mound but betting the Mets to cover is a solid play as well.
BET METS +1.5 (-135).
Over/Under
Three of the 5 games between the Mets and Diamondbacks have had 9 or more total runs. They have alternated reaching 9 or falling short, and Tuesday ended with 11 total runs.
Four of the last 6 games for the Mets have not reached 9 total runs.
Seven of the Diamondbacks’ last 9 games have not reached 9 total runs.
BET UNDER 8.5 (-120).
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