The Arizona Diamondbacks (57-53) kick off the final leg of a 7-game road trip with the opener of a 3-game set against the Minnesota Twins (56-54) on Friday. First pitch from Target Field is at 8:10 p.m, ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting of 2023; Diamondbacks won the season series 2-1 in 2022
The Diamondbacks enter this series on a 3-game losing streak after suffering a 1-0 loss to the San Francisco Giants on Thursday. Arizona is 3-11 in its last 14 games and has fallen from 1st place in the NL West to 3rd place, 6 1/2 games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Twins just wrapped up a 2-4 road trip, taking 2 out of 3 from the St. Louis Cardinals to start the week with a 5-3 win on Thursday. They have lost 6 out of 8 overall. Minnesota leads the AL Central by 2 1/2 games over the Cleveland Guardians.
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Diamondbacks at Twins projected starters
RHP Merrill Kelly vs. RHP Bailey Ober
Kelly (9-5, 3.23 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 through 106 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 4-0 home loss to Seattle Mariners Sunday
- 2023 road stats: 6-1 with 2.74 ERA over 8 starts
Ober (6-5, 3.19 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 through 98 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 6 ER, 11 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 10-7 road loss to Kansas City Royals Saturday
- 2023 home starts: 2-3 with 2.98 ERA across 10 starts
Diamondbacks at Twins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:18 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Twins -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-190) | Twins -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Diamondbacks at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Diamondbacks 4, Twins 3
Moneyline
Kelly has been fantastic on the road for the Diamondbacks this season and Ober has a sub-3.00 ERA at home.
The Diamondbacks are 29-25 on the road; the Twins are 30-24 at home.
Arizona has scored at least 4 runs only twice in the last 7 games but both games were wins.
BET DIAMONDBACKS (+105).
Run line/Against the spread
The Diamondbacks are 58-52 ATS overall this season, while the Twins are 51-59 ATS overall, the 6th-worst mark in the majors.
The Diamondbacks covered the spread in a 1-0 loss on Thursday, but the previous 4 times they covered were outright wins.
Betting them -190 to cover isn’t worth the action despite that all 4 of the Twins’ last 4 wins have only been by 1 run.
PASS.
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Over/Under
Only 1 out of the Diamondbacks’ last 9 games has surpassed 8 total runs.
Three of the Twins’ last 4 games have not reached 9 total runs.
BET UNDER 8.5 (-115).
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