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The Arizona Diamondbacks (79-64) close out their 3-game road series against the Houston Astros (77-65) Sunday night. First pitch from Minute Maid Park is at 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Astros lead 2-0.
The Diamondbacks have lost 3 straight games and 7 of their last 10 overall. After getting shut out 8-0 in the series opener Friday, they lost 11-6 Saturday, the 6th time in their last 9 games they have allowed 7 or more runs.
The Astros have won 2 in a row and 7 of 10 and now have a 6-game winning streak at home.
Diamondbacks at Astros projected starters
RHP Ryne Nelson vs. RHP Justin Verlander
Nelson (10-6, 4.15 ERA) makes his 25th start and 27th appearance. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 through 143 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 9 K in 8-7 win at San Francisco Giants Monday
- 5 straight starts allowing 2 or fewer ER
- Pitched 1 inning of scoreless relief in his career vs. Houston (2023)
Verlander (3-5, 4.52 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 71 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 4 BB, 3 K in 5-3 setback at Cincinnati Reds Monday
- 0-3 with 6.75 ERA in 3 starts since returning from injured list
- 5-1 with 1.77 ERA in 7 career starts vs. Arizona
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Diamondbacks at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:16 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Astros -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-165) | Astros -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Diamondbacks at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Diamondbacks 6, Astros 3
Moneyline
Verlander has struggled since his return from the injured list. The Diamondbacks are trying to not collapse at the end of the season.
They are 9-2 in Nelson’s last 11 starts. He has an ERA of 2.48 in last 5 starts.
The Diamondbacks take advantage and salvage one game of the series.
BET DIAMONDBACKS (+125).
Run line/Against the spread
The Diamondbacks are 33-15 ATS as road underdogs and 10 of their last 12 covers have been outright wins.
The Astros are 29-33 ATS as home favorites.
But the better value is the moneyline so go with that for Arizona.
PASS.
Over/Under
Both games this series have had at least 8 total runs.
Eight of the Diamondbacks’ last 9 games have had 8 or more total runs.
Five of the last 6 for the Astros have had 8 or more total runs.
BET OVER 8 (-115).
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