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The Houston Astros (75-65) welcome the Arizona Diamondbacks (79-62) to Minute Maid Park Friday to open a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Houston won 3-0 last year
The Diamondbacks lost to the San Francisco Giants 3-2 Thursday, closing as +142 underdogs on the road. They won the series 2-1 and are 3-3 over their last 6 games. Arizona sits 3rd in the NL West and is 40-31 on the road this season. It is 4-6 over its last 10 games yet 10-6 over its last 16. The Diamondbacks are 74-67 against the spread (ATS).
The Astros were swept in 3 games at the Cincinnati Reds, wrapping up the series with a 1-0 loss Thursday. Houston, despite losing 3 straight, is 5-3 over its last 8 games and swept the Kansas City Royals in a 4-game set Aug. 29-Sept. 1. It is 39-29 at home this season and 71-69 ATS. The Astros sit atop the AL West.
Diamondbacks at Astros projected starters
RHP Brandon Pfaadt vs. LHP Frambler Valdez
Pfaadt (9-7, 4.32 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 through 160 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 10 K in 14-3 home victory over LA Dodgers Sunday
- 2024 away stats: 3-4, 4.41 ERA (81 2/3 IP, 30 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 8.0 K/9 in 14 starts
- Has never faced Astros
Valdez (13-6, 3.11 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 through 150 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 3-2 home win over Royals Aug. 30
- 2024 home stats: 7-2, 2.69 ERA (77 IP, 23 ER), 1.04 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 in 12 starts
- Career vs. Diamondbacks: 0-0, 3.00 ERA (3 IP, 1 ER), 2 H, 5 BB, 3 K in 3-2 road loss in 10 innings April 13, 2022
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Diamondbacks at Astros odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:45 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks +144 (bet $100 to win $144) | Astros -172 (bet $172 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-150) | Astros -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -118 | U: -104)
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Diamondbacks at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Diamondbacks 4, Astros 3
Moneyline
BET DIAMONDBACKS (+144).
The Diamondbacks have played extremely well with Pfaadt on the mound over the last month. Arizona is 6-1 in his last 7 starts and has won 8 of its last 9 on the road overall.
Despite Valdez’s success, the Astros have scored 3 or more runs in just 3 of their last 6 games and tallied a total of 8 in their last series against the Reds.
Considering those trends and the lack of value elsewhere for a team-specific wager, take DIAMONDBACKS (+144).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
As road underdogs, the Diamondbacks are too expensive to take here, and the Astros are too risky as home favorites, especially considering how well Arizona plays with Pfaadt on the mound.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 7.5 (-104).
The Astros and Diamondbacks will both be starting one of their best pitchers Friday. Houston has gone Under in 4 of its last 6 games and is 55-80-5 O/U on the season. It has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 4 of its last 6 games as well.
The Diamondbacks have an electric offense but will be facing one of the best pitchers in the league. They scored just twice in their last game against the Giants. Similarly, the Astros’ cold offense could struggle to produce.
Take UNDER 7.5 (-104).
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