The Arizona Diamondbacks (31-69) and Chicago Cubs (48-51) play the finale of their three-game series Sunday. It is the rubber match of this series after the Cubs won the opener and the Diamondbacks won the second game. First pitch for Sunday’s game is at 2:20 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Caleb Smith is the projected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks. He is 3-6 with a 4.38 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 through 78 IP spanning 10 starts and 18 relief appearances starts.
He is 0-4 in his four road starts this season. Arizona is 2-8 when he starts and, before winning his last start against the Pittsburgh Pirates, lost seven consecutive Smith starts.
RHP Trevor Williams is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs. He is 3-2 with a 5.68 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 across 52 1/3 IP over 11 starts and one appearance out of the bullpen.
The Cubs won all five of his starts at Wrigley Field. He pitches much better at home with an ERA of 3.81 compared to a 7.88 mark on the road.
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Diamondbacks at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:15 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Diamondbacks +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Cubs -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-130) | Cubs -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Cubs 7, Diamondbacks 3
Money line (ML)
The Diamondbacks have surprised recently with five wins in their last six games, including a 7-3 win over the Cubs Saturday. Their 12-39 road record is still the second-worst in baseball, but they’re 2-3 in their last five away from home; however, Smith took the loss in all four of his road starts this season.
Meanwhile, the Cubs are 29-18 at home and have alternated winning and losing in their last six games at the “friendly confines.” Having lost Saturday, they are in line for a win in the series finale, especially considering they have not yet lost with Williams starting at home.
Take the CUBS (-185).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
With their win and cover Saturday afternoon, the Diamondbacks improved their road record against the spread to 21-30 ATS but only two teams have worse ATS records on the road. Of the eight losses the Diamondbacks have in Smith’s starts this season, five were by at least 2 runs.
The Cubs are 25-22 ATS at home this season and three of their five wins in Williams’ home starts were by at least 2 runs. Their loss to Arizona Saturday was their first ATS loss in five games.
Take the CUBS -1.5 (+105).
Over/Under (O/U)
So far in the series, both games have gone for totals of 10 and 10.5 runs.
Five of the Diamondbacks’ last six games had a total of 10 or more runs and four of the last six for the Cubs finished with totals of 10 or more runs.
Take OVER 9 (-105).
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