The Arizona Diamondbacks (30-69) seek to bounce back from an 8-3 loss in the series opener against the Chicago Cubs (48-50) as the two teams clash again Saturday afternoon. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Merrill Kelly is the projected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks. He is 6-7 with a 4.46 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 over 117 IP spanning 20 starts.
He has been the Diamondbacks’ best pitcher over the last month. He has won four straight decisions and the team has won five of his last six starts.
RHP Alec Mills is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs. He is 4-3 with a 4.64 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 through 52 1/3 IP over seven starts and 12 relief appearances.
He has started only two games at home this season but won them both and has a home ERA of 2.86 over 22 total innings.
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Diamondbacks at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:40 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Diamondbacks +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Cubs -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-125) | Cubs -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: 11 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Cubs 5, Diamondbacks 3
Money line (ML)
The Cubs took the series opener 8-3 and are now 29-17 at home. Mills is undefeated in two home starts this season.
The Diamondbacks are 11-39 on the road and have won only one of Kelly’s last five road starts.
Take the CUBS (-165).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Diamondbacks are 47-52 ATS in 2021 and 20-30 ATS on the road. In their last 32 road games, they have lost 30 times and 24 of those losses were by 2 or more runs.
The Cubs are 25-21 ATS at home and their last nine home wins were each by at least 2 runs.
Take the CUBS -1.5 (+105).
Over/Under (O/U)
Friday’s game went Over the projected 10-run total but less than half the games at Wrigley Field have hit the Over this year.
None of Kelly’s last six starts went Over 11 runs and none of Mills’ seven starts went Over 11 runs.
That would suggest that the most you can expect, based on trends, is a push.
Take UNDER 11 (-115).
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