The Arizona Diamondbacks (30-68) open a five-game road trip with the first of three games against the Chicago Cubs (47-50) Friday afternoon. First pitch is at 2:20 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Zac Gallen is the projected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks. He is 1-4 with a 3.86 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 in 46 2/3 IP over 10 starts.
His last start came against the Cubs in Phoenix Saturday in his first start off the injured list. He went 5 2/3 innings and allowed only one run on three hits but ended up with a no-decision as the Diamondbacks bullpen yielded three ninth-inning runs in a 4-2 defeat.
RHP Zach Davies is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs. He is 5-6 with a 4.35 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 5.7 K/9 and 4.8 BB/9 in 97 1/3 IP over 20 starts.
His last start came against the Diamondbacks Sunday in a 6-4 loss. He got a no-decision in the start, giving up two runs, six hits and four walks in 4 2/3 innings. The Cubs have lost his last four starts.
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Diamondbacks at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:35 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Diamondbacks +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Cubs -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-160) | Cubs -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: 10 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Diamondbacks 5, Cubs 4
Money line (ML)
The Diamondbacks are riding a four-game winning streak that started in the final game in their series at home against the Cubs. They are the league’s second-worst road team this season at 11-38.
The Cubs are 28-17 at home, but they lost four of six games in their last homestand. They have lost Davies’ last four starts and have not won at home with him on the mound since June 13.
Mainly because of the pitching matchup, if the Diamondbacks are going to win any of the games in the series, it is this one.
Take the DIAMONDBACKS (+115).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Arizona’s road record against the spread is not nearly as bad as its actual record. It is 20-29 ATS on the road this season.
The Cubs are tied for the third-highest ATS cover percentage in baseball at 55.7%. They are 24-21 ATS at Wrigley. They failed to cover the spread in four of their last six home games but have covered the spread in their last three games overall.
Expecting Arizona to sneak an outright upset win, you have to like them against the spread as well. Take the DIAMONDBACKS +1.5 (-160).
Over/Under (O/U)
Less than half (46.5%) of the games at Wrigley Field have gone Over the projected total in 2021.
Arizona scored an average of 3.71 runs per road game. Their road ERA is 5.55.
Only two of the Cubs’ last seven games has had a total of 11 runs or more. The Diamondbacks have had five of their last nine road games end up with totals of 11 or more runs.
Gallen will quiet the Cubs’ bats and the Diamondbacks aren’t going to score enough to get the total into double digits.
Take UNDER 10 (-105).
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