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The Arizona Diamondbacks (74-56) and Boston Red Sox (67-61) close out a 3-game series at Fenway Park on Sunday. Start time is slated for 1:35 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Diamondbacks lead 2-0
Arizona has taken the 1st 2 games of this series (12-2 and 4-1) and has won 5 in a row overall. The Diamondbacks have gone 11-3 since Aug. 9.
Boston’s offense this series has amounted to 3 runs on 11 hits. The Red Sox have gone 1-for-11 with runners in scoring position.
Diamondbacks at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Merrill Kelly vs. RHP Tanner Houck
Kelly (3-0, 3.63 ERA) is lined up for his 7th start. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 34 2/3 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 5 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 8-7 loss at Tampa Bay Rays last Sunday
- Career vs. Red Sox: 1-1, 1.26 ERA (14 1/3 IP, 2 ER), 8 H, 2 BB, 19 K in 2 starts
Houck (8-8, 3.01 ERA) is tabbed for his 26th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 152 2/3 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 5-4 loss at Houston Astros Monday
- Career vs. Diamondbacks: 0-1, 9.00 ERA (4 IP, 4 ER), 6 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 1 start
- Tied a season-high with 16 swings and misses in his last start
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Diamondbacks at Red Sox odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:53 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Diamondbacks +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Red Sox -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-190) | Red Sox -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Diamondbacks at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 7, Diamondbacks 4
Moneyline
Kelly is making his 3rd start off a lengthy stay on the IL (shoulder). Both he and Houck are fade candidates with how their surface ERAs line up with expected marks.
Streaking though they are, the Diamondbacks figure to be too far out over their skis with their season record. The opposite holds true for Boston, and the Red Sox have been undone by some clutch-hitting failings of late.
BOSTON (-135) is a slight lean in this series finale. The current pricing with an Over lean makes the Crimson Hose an even better value on the Run Line.
Run line/Against the spread
Look for a lot of lefty bats in both lineups and for that to work against Kelly more than Houck. The Arizona hurler has a history of high walk rates against swingers from the opposite side.
On a warm day with both bullpens needing rest, Sunday’s contest could well be a loose one. The return on the Red Sox here is solid.
BACK BOSTON -1.5 (+155).
Over/Under
Arizona’s bats are surging; Boston’s are more due than they are slumbering. Both starters have some fade lean.
TAKE THE OVER 9.5 (-115). Consider making this one a partial-unit play unless the pricing gets more favorable.
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