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The Arizona Diamondbacks (72-56) and Boston Red Sox (67-59) meet Friday to open a 3-game series at Fenway Park. First pitch is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Red Sox won 2023 series 2-1
Arizona heads to Boston with a 3-game win streak in tow. All 3 of those victories were on the road in Miami, and the Diamondbacks are a robust 10-4 across their last 14 games away from home.
The Red Sox are back at home after a 4-3 road trip. Boston has scuffled of late at Fenway. Since July 27, the Crimson Hose are just 4-7.
Diamondbacks at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Ryne Nelson vs. RHP Brayan Bello
Nelson (8-6, 4.35 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 124 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 5-4 loss at Tampa Bay Rays last Friday
- Owns an 2.45 ERA over his last 4 starts
- Has never faced the Red Sox
Bello (11-5, 4.80 ERA) makes his 24th start. He owns a 1.41 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 123 2/3 IP.
- Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 5-1 win at Baltimore Orioles Saturday
- Has never faced the Diamondbacks
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Diamondbacks at Red Sox odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:56 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Diamondbacks +114 (bet $100 to win $114) | Red Sox -134 (bet $134 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-184) | Red Sox -1.5 (+152)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -114 | U: -106)
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Diamondbacks at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 5, Diamondbacks 4
Moneyline
Boston was sharp in taking 2 of the last 3 games in a series at the Baltimore Orioles last weekend and in taking 2 of 3 at the Houston Astros earlier this week. For the season, the club has scored 4.94 runs per game while allowing 4.72 RPG. Analytics would make a case both numbers could be improved significantly.
Bello gets a lot of ground balls. but he’s been partially undone by a high rate of fly balls finding the unplayable side of outfield walls. He’s done well to limit hard contact of late and is a pick to click at home where the right-hander has registered a 3.42 ERA over his last 4 outings.
The Snakes own an .826 OPS over the last 14 days, but that figure is buoyed by a .322 batting average on balls in play. Nelson has pitched quite well in the 2nd half, but BOSTON (-134) is a side with some value.
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Run line/Against the spread
More juice equals less leverage. PASS.
Over/Under
Look for solid pitching from both starters. Both clubs come in with a day of rest and some reset to the back ends of bullpens.
It’s just a slight lean, and it requires some holding of the nose, but the UNDER 9.5 (-106) looks like the value side here.
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