We’re not exactly breaking news here at Touchdown Wire when we say that Tom Brady is perhaps the greatest quarterback in NFL history. And in his first season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, he’s also become the greatest 43-year-old quarterback in NFL history — though that’s a lower bar, as only George Blanda, Doug Flutie, Vinny Testaverde, and Warren Moon have pass attempts at that age, and their attempts total 71 to Brady’s 610. In any event, while there were systemic issues in the schematic marriage between Brady and head coach Bruce Arians early on, Brady and the Bucs have certainly turned things around of late. Over his last four games, Brady has completed 69.1% of his passes for 1,333 yards, 9.8 yards per attempt, 12 touchdowns and one interception. At this age, to be playing as well as he ever has, is quite a statement.
But if there are two “failures” in Brady’s memory, those would be the first two Super Bowls he lost — Super Bowls XLII and XLVI, when the Giants and their NASCAR fronts and interior pressures did him in. In Super Bowl XLII, Brady was pressured on 23 of his 52 dropbacks, taking five sacks. Under pressure in that game, Brady completed 10 passes on 18 attempts for 91 yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 69.4. In Super Bowl XLVI, Brady was pressured on 20 of his 43 dropbacks, taking two sacks, giving the Giants a safety when he was flagged for intentional grounding in his own end zone, and completing 11 of 18 passes for 94 yards, no touchdowns, one interceptions, and a passer rating of 51.6. In both games, defensive tackle Justin Tuck made Brady’s life absolutely miserable with interior pressure.
Why is interior pressure such a problem for Brady? While he’s perhaps the best in-the-pocket mover in NFL history, and he’s great when he needs to bail against outside pressure, Brady is a step-to-throw passer who needs the ability to move up in the pocket to make big-time throws. You throw that out the window, and it’s one way to make him ordinary — or worse.
Now, Brady faces a Washington Football Team defense that ranks third in the league in defensive DVOA, second against the pass, and an opponent Positive Play Rate of 43% when providing pressure — only the Steelers and Rams have been more effective this season.
With the addition of Ohio State edge-rusher Chase Young as the second overall pick in the 2020 draft, Washington now had five first-round picks along its defensive line — Young, Ryan Kerrigan, Montez Sweat, Daron Payne, and Jonathan Allen. Washington can stunt pressure against your offensive line for days, and they’re happy to do so, but with that much talent, it’s not as if they’re required to scheme pressure by any means necessary.
In Week 15, it was Russell Wilson who experienced what this defensive line can do with straight four-man pressure. This caused Wilson to overthrow receiver David Moore in the end zone, and it was all about Allen (No. 93) blowing by left guard Jordan Simmons (No. 66), and preventing Wilson from making a clean throw to Moore, who had vaporized cornerback Ronald Darby on the way to what would have been an easy touchdown without that inside pressure.
If Brady wants more nightmare fuel, there’s this sack of 49ers quarterback Nick Mullens in Week 14. Here. Allen and Payne (No. 94) run an inside game, clogging up San Francisco’s interior offensive line, muddying the picture for Mullens, and allowing Young (No. 99) to blast in for the sack on delayed pressure. And with Kerrigan (no. 91) beating right tackle Mike McGlinchey to the offensive right side and compressing the pocket, Mullens has nowhere to go.
“They’re a really good defense and they’re playing really, really [well] right now,” Bucs receiver Chris Godwin said Tuesday. “They have a really talented front seven and they really get after the quarterback, so I think as an offense it’s going to be our job to make sure we control them. Make sure we’re on our Ps and Qs with protection and make sure our routes are on point. If you allow them to really get after your quarterback and disrupt the game, they’ll really do that.”
So Brady, who has completed 57 of 130 passes under pressure this season for 675 yards, four touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passer rating of 54.5, must hope that his interior protectors can handle all of this. And in this regard, Brady does have able lieutenants. Neither of his primary guards, Alex Cappa and Ali Marpet, have allowed a sack this season, and while center Ryan Jensen has allowed four, Jensen’s most vulnerable games came against the Panthers in Week 10 and the Rams in Week 11, when he had to fill in for Marpet, who was dealing with concussion issues. Now that Marpet is back and healthy, he’s able to continue his preposterously positive effect on Brady’s protection and production.
Per Sports Info Solutions, the Buccaneers’ EPA improves from -0.11 to +0.13 when Marpet is on the field. Also with Marpet on the field: Tampa Bay’s yards per attempt goes from 6.1 to 8.1, the yards per dropback shoots up from 5.5 to 7.6, the passing touchdown rate goes from 3.7 to 7.1, and the interception rate falls from 3.7% to 1.4%, the blown block pressure rate drops from 18.4% to 8.1%, and the blown block sack rate drops from 2.8% to 1.6%. If you think that makes Marpet look like one of the team’s most valuable players regardless of position, you’re on the right track.
So, that’s the matchup that could very well decide if Brady is able to advance in his first postseason with the Buccaneers, and whether he might become the first quarterback in NFL history to start a Super Bowl in his home stadium. If Marpet and his cohorts are able to give Brady a chance inside against this fearsome fivesome, there are opportunities to be had. But without that, Brady might be as one-and-done as he’s been throughout his career with the one element that has always upended him, both literally and figuratively.