NFL Network’s analytics expert, Cynthia Frelund, put together data, which is way too complicated for my brain to comprehend, and was able to predict which of the rookie wide receivers from the 2021 NFL draft class will be the most productive.
Alabama saw two stars be selected in the first round: Jaylen Waddle at No. 6 to the Miami Dolphins and DeVonta Smith at No. 10 to the Philadelphia Eagles.
So, where do they rank on the rookie productivity list?
Well, at No. 3 is Waddle.
“Not only will Waddle help Tua Tagovailoa when the second-year signal-caller targets his former college teammate, but the speedy playmaker will also generally command a lot of attention, which will help the whole offense have more space to work with and inherently drive up the unit’s potential to be extremely efficient,” writes Frelund. “Last season, 29.4 percent of Miami’s targets to wide receivers were thrown into tight windows — the highest rate in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats. Over the past two college campaigns, Pro Football Focus ranks Waddle in the top five in yards per route run (3.6, including a robust 4.4 in 2020 alone) and yards after the catch per reception (11.5). My model says his speed when open — i.e., when no defenders are closer than 3 yards — is the fastest in this draft class. And according to PFF, Waddle also had just one drop on 29 catchable passes during his injury-abbreviated 2020 campaign.”
Coming in at No. 2 is the 2020 Heisman Trophy recipient, Smith.
“Passes intended to travel 10-plus air yards were not a source of success for the 2020 Eagles,” writes Frelund. “Per Next Gen Stats, Philadelphia carried a 9:12 touchdown-to-interception ratio on such targets to wide receivers last year, along with a 40.3 reception percentage on those passes (30th in the NFL). Smith’s consistent route running and ability to earn separation forecast to help change that this season. His 4.0 receiving yards per route run over the past two seasons topped the FBS charts. Computer vision shows that, last year, the Heisman Trophy winner had the highest percentage of receptions in which he had more than 3 feet of separation at the time of the catch despite a defender being within 3 feet of him on the path of the route. This carries over into yards after the catch; Smith increased his speed once he had the ball in his hands at the third-highest rate in the FBS in 2020.”
While computer models and data analytics can certainly help fans get a better idea of what to expect, there are so many variables that simply can’t be accounted for.
Placing two receivers in the top three is certainly a feat for the Crimson tide, though.
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