Analytics expert predicts breakout season for WR Henry Ruggs

Analytics expert predicts breakout season for WR Henry Ruggs

For the Raiders to make a leap on offense this season, they are going to need Henry Ruggs to become a legitimate threat. Yes, he made a handful of players last year that includes a game-winning touchdown against the Jets. But they will need him to be even better and more consistent.

Ruggs finished the 2020 season totaling 500 yards, but his usage was inconsistent. Nelson Agholor ended up having a bigger role in the offense, but he has since left for New England and it’s up to Ruggs to replace his production.

In a recent article by Cynthia Frelund of NFL Network, she and her analytics team wrote about the potential breakout player for every team heading into the 2021 season. For the Raiders, that was none other than Ruggs. Here is what she had to say about the second-year receiver from Alabama:

“Demonstrated perimeter speed and an increase in opportunity drive Ruggs’ potential to take a big step forward in 2021. Both of Ruggs’ 2020 touchdowns came off deep passes, an area in which he caught five of 14 passes for 245 yards (NGS). When targeted, Ruggs’ route running became more precise on longer routes (I tracked timing per route and separation) as the 2020 season progressed, which is a clue that he should continue to improve in 2021. Off the ball, Ruggs will continue to draw defenders to him and create space for others.”

Why Ruggs will always be used as a deep threat, the Raiders would be wise to get him more involved in shorter routes that allow him to make plays with the ball in his hands. At Alabama, he was at his best on crossing routes in the middle of the field. But we didn’t see much of that during his first year in Las Vegas.

The 2021 season should be a big one for Ruggs. But how much and where he is used is out of his control. Expect Jon Gruden and Derek Carr to find ways to get the ball to their talented playmaker in Year 2.

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