It’s the Green Bay Packers up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3, but to many, it’ll be Aaron Rodgers versus Tom Brady – an elite quarterback battle between two future Hall of Famers.
Naturally, all eyes will be fixated on these two quarterbacks, but the outcome of the game very well could be determined by the running games rather than the play of Rodgers and Brady.
Last week against Chicago, it looked like the Packers found their offensive identity – or at least what their identity should look like – with a heavy dose of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, a balance between the run and the pass, along with the ball being distributed amongst the Packers pass catchers.
As Rodgers said following that game, this isn’t going to be the same offense from previous years, with one player dominating many of the targets. It’s going to be different, but different doesn’t have to mean bad, either.
Aaron Jones is averaging 9.1 yards per carry through two games on 20 attempts while leaving a trail of missed tackles along the way. AJ Dillon’s numbers aren’t as gaudy, with 3.8 yards per rush on 28 attempts, but those are some hard-fought yards gained.
At the end of the day, all teams want the ball in the hands of their top playmaker, and for Green Bay, that is Jones. This offense is at its best when it goes through him, and regardless of who the opponent is, he needs plenty of opportunities.
In addition to the success that the Packers have experienced on the ground, they currently have quite a few unknowns at the receiver position, and not only because they are without Davante Adams.
At Wednesday’s practice, Green Bay was without Allen Lazard, Sammy Watkins, Randall Cobb, and Christian Watson. On top of that, this is a Bucs defense that ranks eighth in passing yards per game allowed, first in pass defense DVOA, and a group that has been very aggressive in getting after the quarterback.
Now, this isn’t to say that running the ball is going to be easy. In fact, it won’t be against this Tampa Bay front-seven. However, we’ve seen in the past – specifically against the Buccaneers – how quickly things can turn south for the Packers’ offense when they become one-dimensional.
Success on the ground can lead to greater play-calling flexibility for Matt LaFleur, more time in the pocket for Aaron Rodgers, and it can create opportunities in the passing game.
Like the Packers, the Buccaneers face question marks of their own at the receiver position. Mike Evans’ suspension was upheld on Tuesday, while neither Julio Jones nor Chris Godwin practiced on Wednesday.
Tampa Bay does, however, have Leonard Fournette, and they are facing a Packers run defense that has had its share of issues early on. This season, Fournette is averaging 4.3 yards per rush and ranks fifth in total yards. Meanwhile, Green Bay has PFF’s second-lowest tackling grade and is allowing a combined 5.6 yards per rush against Minnesota and Chicago – not to mention that with the light boxes that Joe Barry frequently plays with, the Packers are inviting teams to run the ball.
Although Brady and Rodgers will be leading the way for their respective teams, and still garnering much of the attention, this game looks like it will be far from a shootout. Rather it may come down to which team can find the most success on the ground.
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