[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]
The Houston Astros look to finish off the Minnesota Twins Wednesday in Game 4 of their AL Division Series. First pitch from Target Field is set for 7:07 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
ALDS Series: Astros lead 2-1 following 9-1 Game 3 victory Tuesday
Houston LF Yordan Álvarez is feasting off the Twins this series, hitting 4 home runs and batting .500 (6-for-12). Astros RHP Cristian Javier allowed just 1 hit over 5 innings with 9 K’s in the Game 3 win.
Minnesota only managed 1 run Tuesday — off an RBI single by CF Willi Castro — despite closing as a -131 favorite. The Over (8) cashed as Twins RHP Sonny Gray only lasted 4 innings, giving up 8 hits and 4 earned runs.
Astros at Twins projected starters
RHP José Urquidy vs. RHP Joe Ryan
Urquidy made 10 starts in 16 appearances during the regular season, finishing 3-3 with a 5.29 ERA. He had a 1.43 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 in 63 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 2 K in 2-1 road win vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Sept. 29
- 2023 road stats: 2-1, 4.28 ERA (27 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 1 save in 5 starts and 1 relief appearance
- Career vs. Twins: 0-0, 2.93 ERA (15 1/3 IP, 5 ER) in 3 starts, including a no-decision (5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 6 K) in a start this season
Ryan was 11-10 with a 4.51 ERA over 29 regular-season starts. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 in 161 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No decision, 5 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 7-6 road win at Colorado Rockies Sept. 29
- 2023 home stats: 7-4, 3.83 ERA (82 1/3 IP, 35 ER) in 14 starts
- Career vs. Astros: 1-2, 8.36 ERA (14 IP, 13 ER) in 3 starts
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
Astros at Twins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:20 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Astros +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Twins -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-190) | Twins -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]
Astros at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 4, Twins 2
Moneyline
The Twins are on the ropes and this Houston team is looking eerily similar to last year. The Astros are 52-30 on the road and 23-12 as road underdogs.
BET ASTROS (+105).
Run line/Against the spread
Since I am picking Houston to take Game 4 there is no value in taking the Astros +1.5 (-190). I’d rather PASS here and take them on the moneyline for plus money.
Over/Under
Every game this series has gone Over but playoff baseball in general sees lower-scoring games. This year the Over is just 14-18-4, and, if you take away this series the record is a paltry 8-18-4. I expect these teams to regress to match the other playoff teams, especially since the Twins can’t afford to pitch to Alvarez any longer.
LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-105).
[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow Ethan Matthew on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.
Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]