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The Texas Rangers and the Houston Astros play a decisive Game 7 in the American League Championship Series Monday. First pitch from Minute Maid Park is scheduled for 8:03 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Rangers vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
ALCS: Tied 3-3
This ALCS joins the 2019 World Series, which also involved the Astros, as the only time in a best-of-7 series a road team has won the 1st 6 games.
The Texas Rangers won Game 6 Sunday by a 9-2 score, and we had another 9th-inning bad beat. The Rangers produced 5 runs in the final inning, flipping the total (9) from an Under to an Over result. The total has ended up going high in 5 straight contests since Texas won Game 1 by a 2-0 score.
Texas has managed an 8-3 record in the postseason, going 7-0 on the road, all as an underdog. The Over is 3-1 in the past 4 road playoff games for Texas.
Houston is 6-4 in the playoffs, while losing 4 straight at home since a 6-4 victory over the Minnesota Twins at Minute Maid Park in Game 1 of the ALDS. The Over is 4-1 in 5 home games for the defending champs, and 8-2 in 10 postseason games overall.
Rangers at Astros projected starters
RHP Max Scherzer vs. RHP Cristian Javier
Scherzer was 13-6 with a 3.77 ERA across 27 regular-season starts with the Mets and Rangers. He had a 1.12 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 152 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 8-5 home loss vs. Texas Rangers in Game 3 of the ALCS Wednesday
- 2023 road splits: 8-4, 4.31 ERA (85 2/3 IP, 41 ER), 21 HR in 15 starts
- Making his 24th career postseason start and 29th overall appearance
Javier made 31 starts in the regular season, going 10-5 with a 4.56 ERA. He had a 1.27 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 over 162 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 8-5 road win vs. the Texas Rangers in Game 3 of the ALCS Wednesday
- 2023 home splits: 5-2, 3.71 ERA (68 IP, 28 ER), 7 HR in 13 starts in the regular season
- Making his 5th career postseason start and 17th overall appearance\
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Rangers at Astros odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:38 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Rangers +108 (bet $100 to win $108) | Astros -126 (bet $126 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rangers +1.5 (-188) | Astros -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -104 | U: -118)
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Rangers at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 4, Rangers 3
Moneyline
The ASTROS (-126) get Game 7 on their home field, and the 4rth time has to be a charm.
Houston is facing Scherzer, who looked awfully rusty in his Rangers (+108) postseason debut in Game 3, and he was outdueled by Javier. The Astros have been abysmal at home so far this season, but you have to side with the home side, especially since Scherzer has been a mess on the road in 2023.
Run line/Against the spread
The Rangers +1.5 (-188) will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return if you’d like a little bit of insurance. This should be a very close contest in a decisive Game 7, but this is too much risk for not nearly enough reward.
PASS, and just focus on the moneyline instead.
Over/Under
The UNDER 9.5 (-118) might be the best play on the board.
Yes, the Over has cashed in 5 in a row in this series, with some devastating results for Under bettors late in games. However, this is a Game 7, and even with plenty of experience on the Houston side, there will be nerves. And Scherzer is a veteran who should be much better. If not, he’ll have a very short leash.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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