The Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox meet for Game 4 of the American League Championship Series Tuesday with first pitch scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Zack Greinke is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros. Greinke went 11-6 with a 4.16 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 6.3 K/9, and 1.9 BB/9 through 171 IP over 30 games (29 starts) in the regular season.
- Has logged one scoreless inning this postseason in Game 3 of the ALDS against the Chicago White Sox.
- Owns a 10.22 ERA across four career games (three starts) at Fenway.
- Logged an 11.74 ERA and 1.76 WHIP over his last four appearances of the regular season, and missed time during that stretch dealing with a neck injury.
RHP Nick Pivetta is the projected starter for the Red Sox. He went 9-8 with a 4.53 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, and 3.8 BB/9 through 155 IP over 31 regular-season games (30 starts).
- Has made two long-relief appearances in the playoffs in which he allowed 3 ER on 7 H and 3 BB with 11 K over 8 2/3 IP.
- Last pitched Oct. 10.
- Posted 5.40 ERA in the regular season at Fenway. Owns a Boeing ERA (7.05) and 1.54 WHIP over his last 37 IP at home.
Astros at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:35 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Astros +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Red Sox -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Astros +1.5 (-180) | Red Sox -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Prediction
Red Sox 6, Astros 4
Money line (ML)
The Boston offense has been on a rampage, and the Red Sox are up two games to one in this series. The Crimson Hose tallied 12 runs in a 12-3 rout Monday in Game 3; that after they scored 9 runs Saturday in Game 2. The Red Sox are 6-2 in the postseason and have scored 6 or more runs six times.
The Game 4 pitching matchup — and the bullpen situation behind the starters — is more in favor of the home nine than it appears to show on paper. Ride the momentum: BACK BOSTON (-135).
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Consider a half-unit rider on the above if you want to take a more aggressive stance on the Red Sox. With a Boston bullpen advantage and a high total, a RED SOX -1.5 (+155) wager has value. The +155 is attractive in the market if nothing else.
Over/Under (O/U)
Each side toted a three-Over streak into this series, and the Over has hit in all three games of the ALCS.
But the tag here nixes any value in getting these teams to 7-for-7: PASS.
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