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The New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians meet in Game 3 of their best-of-7 ALCS Thursday at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 5:08 p.m. ET (TBS / truTV / Max). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Yankees vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
ALCS: Yankees lead 2-0; Yankees won regular-season series 4-2
The Yankees doubled up the Guardians 6-3 in Game 2 Tuesday, cashing as a moderate favorite (-159) with the Over (7) cashing behind Yankees SP Gerrit Cole (4 1/3 IP, 2 ER) and 4 relievers (4 2/3 IP, 1 ER). New York led wire to wire, with CF Aaron Judge swatting a 2-run HR and finishing with 3 RBIs.
While New York was just 2-for-10 with runners in scoring position in Game 2, Cleveland went 0-for-7 RISP.
The Guardians received a solo HR from 3B Jose Ramirez in the top of the 9th, but he is just still 4-for-24 (.167) with a 2B, 2 solo HRs, 2 RBIs, 4 runs and an SB in 7 postseason games.
Yankees at Guardians projected starters
RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. LHP Matthew Boyd
Schmidt (5-5, 2.85 ERA) made 16 regular-season starts. He had a 1.18 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 85 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 3-2 win at Kansas City Royals in Game 3 of the ALDS Oct. 9 — only 2024 postseason appearance
- 2024 road splits (regular season): 3-3, 1.39 ERA (45 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 17 BB, 46 K, .211 opponents’ batting average (OBA) in 8 starts
- Career vs. Guardians (regular season): 1-0, 3.52 ERA (15 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.89 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 in 3 starts (4 appearances)
- 2024 vs. Guardians (regular season): 1 start, win, 5 IP, 1 ER (2 R), 3 H, 5 BB, 7 K in 3-2 road victory April 13
- Career postseason: 0-2, 6.43 ERA (7 IP, 5 ER), 1.71 WHIP in 1 start and 3 relief appearances
Boyd (2-2, 2.72 ERA) made 8 regular-season starts. He had a 1.13 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 39 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 2 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 7-3 home victory in Game 5 of the ALDS vs. Detroit Tigers Saturday
- 2024 home splits (regular season): 1-1, 2.25 ERA (20 IP, 5 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 4 BB, 23 K in 4 starts
- 2024 vs. Yankees (regular season): 1 start, no-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H (2 HR), 4 BB, 2 K in 9-5 road win in 12 innings Aug. 20
- 2024 postseason: 0-0, 0.00 ERA , 6 2/3 IP, 3 BB, 10 K, 1.20 WHIP in 2 starts
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Yankees at Guardians odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 6:01 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Yankees -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Guardians -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+150) | Guardians +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -125 | U: +105)
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Yankees at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 3, Yankees 2
Moneyline
The GUARDIANS (-105) are worth playing lightly in Game 3 as the home ‘dog as they look to keep their season alive.
Yes, they wouldn’t be eliminated with a loss, but going into a 3-0 hole in a series against the powerful Yankees is basically a death knell.
Cleveland catches a slight break against Schmidt, certainly not the strongest starter in the New York pitching arsenal, and the Yankees were just 21-23 in the regular season vs. left-handers.
Run line/Against the spread
The Guardians +1.5 (-185) will set you back nearly 2 times the potential return. That’s too much risk and not enough reward.
Cleveland should play with some urgency returning home after falling into a 2-0 hole. If you like the Guardians, just play them straight up — on the moneyline.
PASS on the spread.
Over/Under
UNDER 7 (+105) is a solid value at plus-money in Game 3.
We should see a decent pitching performance from the home team as the Yankees struggled against southpaws. Of course, Boyd didn’t go terribly deep into 2 starts for manager Stephen Vogt in the ALDS.
The Over is 3-0-1 in the past 4 games for Cleveland, but just 3-2-2 in 7 postseason games. New York has cashed Unders at a 3-2-1 pace in 6 playoff outings.
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