The Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox are locked up at a game apiece as the ALCS resumes in Boston Monday night. First pitch is set for 8:07 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Astros RHP Jose Urquidy will be making his first appearance of the 2021 postseason. He was 8-3 with a 3.62 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 through 107 IP across 20 starts in the regular season.
- Notched a season-high 9 strikeouts while allowing 1 ER over 6 IP in his lone start against Boston this year.
- Posted a 3.86 ERA and 8.0 K/9 across 56 IP over 10 road starts this season.
Red Sox LHP Eduardo Rodriguez makes his third playoff start. He allowed a combined 4 ER in 6 2/3 IP in his first two appearances. Rodriguez was 13-8 with a 4.74 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 through 157 2/3 IP across 31 starts and one relief appearance in the regular season.
- He faced Houston twice this season and surrendered 6 ER in 4 2/3 IP in each start.
- While Rodriguez recorded a strong 11.3 K/9 in his 13 home starts this season, the results weren’t pretty. He was roughed up to the tune of a 5.95 ERA, although a .383 BABIP deserves some of the blame.
Astros at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:17 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Astros +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Red Sox -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+155) | Red Sox +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Prediction
Astros 6, Red Sox 4
Money line (ML)
Houston has already beaten up on Rodriguez twice, as they often do against left-handers. They lead the league in wRC+ while striking out at the lowest rate (18.3%) against southpaws.
Houston was much better than Boston during the regular season, as their +205 run differential was fourth best in the league and far superior to the Red Sox +80 mark.
The ASTROS (+100) should come out on top and get back in the driver’s seat in this series.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The skills say Rodriguez deserved a better fate this season, but he was prone to blowups at home and is facing a team that already knocked him around twice. The Houston bats should get back on track in this one.
On the other side, Urquidy’s skills didn’t quite support his 3.62 ERA. However, he was able to consistently avoid disasters and allowed more than 4 runs just once in 20 starts. He should be able to limit the damage and allow his team to win by multiple runs, so back the ASTROS -1.5 (+155).
Over/Under (O/U)
In addition to leading the league in wRC+ against lefties, the Astros rank second in runs per game on the road. Meanwhile, Boston scored 5.83 runs per game at home this season, tops in the league, and they were fifth in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching.
This is the highest total either of these teams has had in this year’s playoffs, but for good reason. There may be a lot of offensive fireworks in this one, so side with OVER 9.5 (+105).
If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow @RuddHQ on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]