All attention is on the top 5 quarterbacks in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Trever Lawrence and Zach Wilson seem to be surefire choices in the first two selections with Justin Fields, Mac Jones and Trey Lance likely to follow close behind. The New England Patriots re-signed Cam Newton to a one-year deal, but they’ll likely add depth at the position throughout some point in the draft.
Whether that’s in the first round or later on is unknown. But, it appears the only way to get one of the top 5 guys is by trading up. Former Patriots executive Michael Lombardi gave a detailed report on why the team wouldn’t trade up — but, precedented logic also didn’t lead to Bill Belichick spending the most money in free agency.
Fox Sports’ Peter Schrager’s most recent mock draft has the San Franicisco 49ers selecting Jones at No. 3 and the Patriots trading up to No. 4 to grab Fields. The question is — what would it cost for the Patriots to make this move?
Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer gave his best guess.
The Falcons’ pick, on the old Jimmy Johnson draft value chart, is worth 1,800 points. The Patriots are sitting at 15th, and that one’s 1,050 points. Generally, you’d value a future first at a little less than the middle-of-the-round pick. A middle-of-the-first-round pick equals 975 points, which would get you well past 1,800. Thing is, if you think the Patriots are going to be good next year—and we have two decades of evidence showing Bill Belichick is plenty capable of making that happen—then you aren’t going to value the pick like that.
So, let’s say you’d value the Patriots’ 2022 first-round pick as the 28th selection. That one’s worth 660 points, and 1,050 plus 660 is 1,710. To that, add the Patriots’ two fourth-round picks, which are worth 54 and 50 points, and you’re there.
Patriots get: fourth pick.
Falcons get: 15th pick, 120th pick, 122nd pick, 2022 first-round pick.
In the past, that doesn’t seem like a price Belichick would be willing to pay. After this insane offseason of spending, anything seems possible.
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