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The Toronto Blue Jays (89-73) and Minnesota Twins (87-75) continue their best-of-3 AL Wild Card series on Tuesday. First pitch at Target Field in Minneapolis is slated for 4:38 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Series: Twins lead 1-0; teams split 6 games during the regular season
Toronto struggled the last few weeks of the season and went 10-19 with a .684 OPS in its last 29 games. The Blue Jays were held to 1 run in a 3-1 setback in Tuesday’s series opener.
The Twins got 2 home runs from DH Royce Lewis in the Game 1 win. Since Sept. 19, Minnesota is 9-3 in its last 12 games and 5-2 in its last 7 contests at Target Field.
Blue Jays at Twins projected starters
RHP Jose Berrios vs. RHP Sonny Gray
Berrios logged 32 starts in the regular season. He went 11-12, notching a 3.65 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 189 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 10 K in 6-0 home loss vs. the New York Yankees last Wednesday; owns a 4.53 ERA over his last 7 starts
- 2023 road stats: 5-6, 3.97 ERA in 99 2/3 IP across 17 starts
- Last 5 starts vs. Twins: 3-1, 4.03 ERA in 29 IP (2021-23)
- Owns a 3.75 ERA in 12 career postseason innings
Gray made 32 starts in the regular season, going 8-8 with a 2.79 ERA . He registered a 1.15 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9 K/9 across 184 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 4 K in 2-1 home loss vs. Oakland Athletics Thursday
- 2023 home stats: 4-5, 2.67 ERA in 97 2/3 IP across 17 starts
- Last 5 starts vs. Blue Jays: 0-1, 4.24 ERA in 23 1/3 IP (2018-23)
- Owns a 2.95 ERA in 21 1/3 career postseason innings (2013, 2017)
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Blue Jays at Twins odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated at 1:02 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Blue Jays +124 (bet $100 to win $124) | Twins -146 (bet $146 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays +1.5 (-178) | Twins -1.5 (+146)
Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -102 | U: -120)
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Blue Jays at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 5, Blue Jays 4
Moneyline
Minnesota is the all-around lean for the series, but the pricing might not be great for this 2nd game after the Tuesday win and with a likely overvalued Gray twirling for the home nine.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
A PASS is the suggestion, but the tag here is noteworthy if you can’t chip away as much at Gray: bettors siding with the Twins might consider this Minnesota -1.5 action if the return is +165 or better.
Over/Under
The season analytic numbers for these clubs reveal they have both slightly overperformed in run prevention while underperforming at the plate. Add in 2 fade-able starting pitchers for this game and some bullpen back-end types not being available after 9 total relievers were used Tuesday, and the Over figures to bring value.
Both Berrios and Gray benefited from left-on-base rates over 76%. Gray has gotten by with fly balls leaving the yard at a tiny 5.2% rate. Both pitchers have expected-ERA figures in the 4.00 range.
On a warmed-up-weather day in Minneapolis, BACK THE OVER 8 (-102).
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