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The Air Force Falcons (3-11, 0-3 MWC) meet the San Diego State Aztecs (9-3, 2-1) Wednesday. Tip-off at Viejas Arena is set for 10:30 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college basketball odds around the Air Force vs. San Diego State odds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
The Falcons head into this one looking to halt a 4-game losing skid. Air Force lost to Wyoming 70-65 as a 3-point home underdog last time out on Saturday as the Over (129) hit. It is just 1-7 straight up (SU) in the past 8 games, while going 3-5 against the spread (ATS). The Over has cashed in 4 in a row, with Air Force allowing 77 or more points in 3 of those outings.
The Aztecs surprised Boise State with a 76-68 road win as 4.5-point underdogs Saturday while the Over (136.5) cashed. San Diego State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games, including neutral-floor wins over Houston, 73-70 in OT, Nov. 30, as well as against Cal, 71-50, Dec. 21. The Over is 5-3 across the past 8 games.
– Rankings: USA TODAY Sports Men’s Basketball Coaches Poll
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Air Force at San Diego State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college basketball odds. Lines last updated at 11:05 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Air Force +1400 (bet $100 to win $1,400) | San Diego State -5000 (bet $5,000 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Air Force +19.5 (-110) | San Diego State -19.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 131.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Air Force at San Diego State picks and predictions
Prediction
San Diego State 77, Air Force 53
Moneyline
It should go without saying, but San Diego State (-5000) is a ridiculous bet. You’d have to risk $50 for every $1 in profit.
AVOID, and look to the spread instead.
Against the spread
SAN DIEGO STATE -19.5 (-110) is a much better play laying the points.
The Aztecs are a strong team just on the brink of the rankings, sitting at No. 34 in the KenPom rankings, while posting a 2-3 SU record in Quad 1 games with victories over Houston and Boise State.
Air Force +19.5 (-110) cannot be trusted. It has lost 2 in a row, while also failing to cover those games. That includes a 19-point loss to UNLV at home on New Year’s Eve. The Falcons are just 3-5 ATS in the past 8 games, too.
Over/Under
UNDER 131.5 (-110) is worth a look, but proceed with caution. Go with a half-unit play at most.
The Over is 4-0 in the past 4 games for Air Force, allowing 77 or more points in 3 of the previous 4 outings. That’s concerning, especially since it allowed 81 to Northern Colorado Dec. 16.
However, San Diego State has cashed low in 3 of the past 5 games, and this is a team which has scored 76 or fewer points in 4 of those 5 outings. The Aztecs are much more methodical on offense, and they will slow the pace considerably against a team they should be able to control from the jump.
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