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The Air Force Falcons (7-0, 4-0 Mountain West) and Colorado State Rams (3-4, 1-2) tussle Saturday. Kickoff at Canvas Stadium is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Air Force vs. Colorado State odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Falcons are fresh off a Saturday road win at Navy. Air Force prevailed 17-6 in covering as a 10.5-point favorite. The Falcons have been most noted for their powerful, best-in-the-nation ground game (306.0 rushing yards per game), but they have also been stout on defense where they are yielding just 223.4 YPG (2nd in FBS).
Colorado State hasn’t beaten Air Force since 2015 (0-6 straight up, 3-3 ATS). The Rams head into this contest off a 25-23 setback at UNLV last Saturday (ATS win as +6.5 underdogs). CSU has a respectable offense, and one that will throw the ball frequently (336.4 passing YPG, 6th in FBS). But the Rams have been spotty on defense, allowing 466.4 YPG (130th in FBS).
Air Force is No. 19 in the US LBM Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
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Air Force at Colorado State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 9:46 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Air Force -550 (bet $550 to win $100) | Colorado State +400 (bet $100 to win $400)
- Against the spread (ATS): Air Force -14 (-110) | Colorado State +14 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 46.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Air Force at Colorado State picks and predictions
Prediction
Air Force 27, Colorado State 14
Moneyline
The moneyline pool is full of juice. The prices bordering that pool are out of bounds when it comes to any leverage. PASS.
Against the spread
Air Force was favored by just 12.5 points on Monday, and the line shift, crossing 1 key number and hitting another, takes too much air out of a play on the Falcons. USAFA is coming off a pair of emotional wins — over Wyoming and Navy — and its strength of schedule needs to start weighing down some of its proficient statistical prowess. Early-season routs over Utah State, San Jose State, and San Diego State have not aged well, especially for a Falcon offense that piled up big numbers against those foes.
Figure Colorado State passing as being able to log some come-back points, even it’s in the late-game, back-door cover department.
PASS.
Over/Under
The total has gone Under in 12 of Colorado State’s last 18 games. The Under has also cashed in 5 of the Falcons’ last 6 road games.
And that’s the value play here. Peg Air Force’s offensive capabilities as being inflated due to some earlier games. CSU’s defensive red-zone profile figures as adequate enough to perhaps turn a couple Falcons scores into those of the 3-point variety, and the weather for this one — cold, snow, a bit of a wind — won’t help either offense find paydirt.
TAKE THE UNDER 46.5 (-105).
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